[extropy-chat] Why Think About the Future Now?

[Robin Hanson]

At 12:54 PM 4/7/2006, Hal Finney wrote:
> > Why think about the future now?  Why not wait until it gets here to
> > think about it?  ... some problems we could better avoid if we start
> > dealing with them now, or some opportunities that can be better
> > exploited if we start working on them now.    So what are these ...
>
>My feeling is that it makes sense to focus on the medium term, say 10-20
>years out, and to identify any factors which could substantially change
>the status quo in that time frame.  ... I look at negative factors, ...
>This is one reason I have been following the Peak Oil theory, which
>predicts (in a popular variant) that energy will soon become a serious
>limitation on economic growth, leading to persistant worldwide recession
>and possibly increased conflict levels.  ...
>Another potential threat is bird flu.  This is not yet transmittable from
>human to human, only from bird to human ... a substantial fraction of
>the human race could die within a few years if things take a turn for
>the worse.  ... Another biological threat is bioengineered plagues, either
>created via terrorism or released from military stockpiles.  ...
>We have often discussed transformative technologies like AI or nanotech
>which could potentially have very bad as well as positive impacts. ...

Identifying trends that might lead to big changes is a first step, 
but by itself
it is not enough to be what Robert says is called a "trim tab."  The next step
is to ask what we could do about these problems now, to make it worth
thinking about those problems now.   At an individual level, what is there to
do other than making sure to have some savings and perhaps a stash of
supplies in case things went really bad?   Or what is there that the readers
of this list can do together to deal with such problems?



Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323