[extropy-chat] A Bayesian Looks at Climate Change

[Martin Striz]

On 4/20/06, "Hal Finney" <hal at finney.org> wrote:

> BTW James Annan has a blog entry out today discussing a report in Nature
> that produces a new and somewhat narrower estimate of sensitivity:
> http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2006/04/hegerl-et-al-on-climate-sensitivity.html
> However the new range is not nearly as narrow as what James came up with
> so he is a little miffed that Nature rejected his paper.

It's funny that he wrote this: "As we've discussed, there are numerous
other data sets that all provide additional information (and what's
more, which all point towards a sensitivity of close to 3C as having
the highest likelihood)..."

We all know that a confidence interval is not a probability
distribution.  The middle number is not the most likely.  Although, I
guess he's right that if you take a large number of studies into
account, their combined data seem to be pointing to 3.

Martin