[extropy-chat] The NSA's disclosures on UFOs

[The Avantguardian]

--- Martin Striz <mstriz at gmail.com> wrote:

> On 4/25/06, The Avantguardian
> <avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com> wrote:
> 
> > That many reliable military personnel have had
> > encounters with UFOs, with collaborating radar
> > evidence seems to raise the Bayesian posterior
> > probability of their existense quite high in my
> > estimation.
> 
> Really?  Higher than all the other possible
> earthbound explanations,
> especially in light of what we know about the
> accuracy of eyewitness
> testimony?

Well that depends. Assume that I am highly trained
USAF fighter pilot that the government has spent LOTS
of money to train to recognize friendly aircraft from
foe. Furthermore assume that and I am scrambled under
orders to investigate some anomolous radar signatures
and when I close with anomalous radar signatures I see
a something that my training did not prepare me for
that does not match any known earthbound flying
machine. Now the government would not trust me with a
such a dangerous expensive machine if I was a moron.

Now further assume that as I approached the flying
device on an intercept course and as I did, my
instrumentation started to go haywire and I lost
contact with my superiors. Yet when I turned away my
instrumentation (you know that unreliable crap called
radio and radar) returned to normal. Well it must have
been the sun in my eyes. Or maybe I was on drugs at
the time with a full load out of missiles and bombs.
Or maybe, just maybe, the Iranians are so
technologically superior to the US that they fooled me
into believing that the bogey I was pursuing was not
of this world such that I would report such an
encounter with my comanding officer at quite some risk
to my reputation. Just because you are smart does not
mean that the average air force pilot is an idiot.

>  When the Titanic went down, half of the
> survivors claimed
> it went down in one piece while the other half
> claimed it broke in
> half, yet they were all there, in the middle of the
> ocean, a few
> hundred yards away, with only the Titanic to look
> at, and she was a
> big boat.

Yes. But the Titanic passengers did not log hundreds
of hours training on simulators of sinking ships
before they were allowed to go down with the Titanic. 

>  How much can you infer about some
> blinkety lights a few
> miles away?

Ummm... did you actually read the stuff on the site?

> The posterior probability that we are being visited
> by aliens is still
> low if the prior probability (estimated by the Drake
> Equation) is low.

The Drake Equation is irrelevant in this instance
because it assumes we know what to listen for. First
off why assume that a civilization that had
superluminal travel would rely on communication
technology that was limited by c? Are we listening to
right channels? Secondly, what wild life photographer
or reconaissance operative approaches his subjects
stamping his feet, announcing his motives, and playing
his favorite CDs?   

> Do you think it is merely coincidence that so many
> UFOs occur near
> military bases?  Do you think this is because aliens
> happen to have a
> peculiar interest in ancient (from their
> perspective) weapons systems,
> or is a more parimonious explanation in order?

Well the most parsimonious explanation is that any
beings capable of coming to this planet from elsewhere
are not stupid. If you were approaching a lion would
you be more cognizant of its claws and teeth or of its
swishing tail? Ridicule nuclear fusion if you will,
the phenomenon that powers the stars is no trivial
thing even to technologically superior aliens. The
magical forcefield that can withstand a nuke I think
is a hollywood invention.
 

Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu

"A human being is part of the whole called by us 'the universe,' a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings, as something separate from the rest - a kind of optical delusion of consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and affection for a few persons nearest to us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening the circle of understanding and compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty."

-St. Einstein

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