[extropy-chat] Protect ourselves to prevent a return tothemiddle ages

[J. Andrew Rogers]

On Feb 9, 2006, at 11:50 PM, spike wrote:
> This situation is far too serious to even notice
> the neener-neener factor, ja.  What concerns me
> is that Europe Incorporated will suddenly realize
> the folly of allowing its military force to become
> as weak as it appears to be.


This problem is not at the level of military conflict.  Whatever the  
US military has gotten itself into, it can easily handle, unrealistic  
expectations notwithstanding.  The only real question is whether or  
not people have learned the lesson of history that the appeasement of  
evil, particularly when it is vulnerable, almost never pays off in  
the long term.

With respect to European militaries specifically, they can deliver a  
significant sting in their own territories but lack the ability to  
project (given their tribal history, many have argued that this is a  
good thing).  If European countries ever decided to alter the  
landscape of their own countries they are quite capable of it, as  
history shows.  Europe has always managed to find its brass when it  
mattered on many, many occasions.  The current culture probably does  
not care too much about their historical battles to the death with  
Islam but they have a long history of dealing with such threats (c.f.  
Jan Sobieski).  Militant Islam has to be very careful about pushing  
the backs of the Europeans against the wall if they want to prevail;  
any parity in military capability that existed in the Middle Ages has  
long since passed, and Europeans can be famously ruthless and brutish  
when it comes to the survival of their tribes.  Push come to shove, I  
know who I'll put my money on.


The degradation problem with the European militaries, in short, is  
Pax Americana.  To shore up their sagging economies, they have  
drastically cut military expenditures and redirected funds to  
underfunded social entitlements.  It is educational to put a  
historical context to it.  The long term historical military  
maintenance expenditure during times of non-conflict has been around  
4% of GDP, plus or minus a bit.  Europeans and many other "safe"  
countries are now spending far less than that, particularly in the  
last 15 years since the fall of the Soviet Union and as the European  
economies have started to stagnate.

It would probably surprise most people to know that the US averaged  
something like 7% of GDP on military expenditures during the 20th  
century -- that is how the US bought its advantage in military  
technology, particularly after getting caught with its pants down  
(again) in the second world war.  Current US military expenditures  
are far less, and are at peace time levels by any historical  
standard.  The US is cashing in on the dividend of technological  
advances paid for in the 20th century.  To put a different spin on  
it, the US could double its military expenditures and still be in its  
historical range of "normal" for the US; those who think the US  
military capability is stretched are lacking historical context.

Militant Islam is counting on the modern West not fighting back.   
They are not stupid; they know that their success depends on never  
having to face the war-fighting capability of the Europeans and their  
diaspora.  I would add that this will never be a problem for the  
western hemisphere in the way that it will be for the eastern  
hemisphere.  Islam cannot hoof its way into the western hemisphere,  
nor does it have meaningful foothold here; it is a much harder  
target.  The only dog the US really has in this fight is the impact  
on the world economy if it does not use its military prowess and  
geopolitical power to rein in the threat.  The threat to Europe and  
European politics is far more dire, as is in evidence.  The ball is  
really in the court of the EU.  If Europe takes a strong stand  
against militant Islam it is game over for the jihadis; what remains  
to be seen is if that will actually happen, and the jihadis are  
obviously counting against it.

By my own estimation, the jihadis played their cards too early in  
Europe if they wanted a good shot at success.  Perhaps 10-20 years  
too early.  Europe can control this situation, if they want to.

Cheers,

J. Andrew Rogers