[extropy-chat] Human Machinations

[Russell Wallace]

On 2/16/06, Keith Henson <hkhenson at rogers.com> wrote:
>
> Points d and e are closer.  The reason both parts of Ireland became an
> economic success story is that a generation ago there was a large drop
> over
> a few years in the birth rate.


This turns out not to be the case - the economic growth and shift away from
rabid theocracy were linked in a causal web to more open trade, increased
communication and the shift away from banana-republic style socialism. The
birth rate falling below extinction level was a consequence of these
factors, not a cause.

I don't know if that was effect or cause of
> the shift away from a rabid theocracy.  Same thing happened in other
> places.  But in any case, with population growth below economic growth,
> what happens?


The model of economic productivity as "cargo" - something delivered from
outside, with a fixed supply to be divided among a population - works well
for a hunter-gatherer economy where wealth is collected largely as-is from
the environment, but not for an industrial one where wealth is largely
produced by people.

PS.  Warning, I am leading you into a model that is incredibly simple,
> logical and miserably depressing.
>

Having read your model before, I think the approach is a reasonable one, but
at the end of the day it doesn't really match the historical facts. That's
another matter, though; I'll confine myself in this post to providing
corrected data on Ireland :)

- Russell
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