[extropy-chat] Human Machinations

[Russell Wallace]

On 2/16/06, Keith Henson <hkhenson at rogers.com> wrote:
>
> >The model of economic productivity as "cargo" - something delivered from
> >outside, with a fixed supply to be divided among a population - works
> well
> >for a hunter-gatherer economy where wealth is collected largely as-is
> from
> >the environment, but not for an industrial one where wealth is largely
> >produced by people.
>
> Jeeze, guys, you would think am asking a trick question.  The income per
> capital goes UP.


(When the population starts dying out, I assume you mean.)

In the "cargo" economic model which is approximately true of hunter-gatherer
societies, that's approximately correct. In an industrial society, half the
capita means half the minds and hands available to produce the income in the
first place, so the total income also drops by half - no increase per
capita. (Unfortunately, we evolved in hunter-gatherer societies, so the
"cargo" economic model is more attractive than the industrial one,
irrespective of the data.)

(If the population falls too far, you start losing economies of scale, so
the per capita income will go down. I suspect other factors will come into
play before that happens, though long beforehand the increased ratio of old
age pensioners to workers will cause a drop in per capita income - that's
starting to be observed in some countries already.)

Well, do you know of a population that supported war with a rising income
> per capita and bright looking future prospects?  (One that was not
> attacked
> of course.)  Examples will refute the model.
>
> This maps back to the stone age where such conditions shut off war.
>

If you want me to shoot holes in your model, I'll be happy to oblige :) So
that everyone (including those list subscribers who haven't read it) are
clear what target I'm shooting at, why don't you post a brief summary of it
here?

- Russell
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