[extropy-chat] Human Machinations

[Keith Henson]

At 01:59 AM 2/22/2006 +0000, Russell wrote:
>On 2/20/06, Keith Henson <<mailto:hkhenson at rogers.com>hkhenson at rogers.com> 
>wrote:
>>Huge research job.  And it probably is not the most important element
>>anyway.  It is the average population *expectation* on how bright the
>>prospects for the future are that flips the gain on xenophobic memes.  I
>>first figured as you did, and the America civil war didn't fit, times were
>>ok.  But when you considered the aftermath, it was clear that they had
>>reason to fear for a bleak future.
>>
>>After Lincoln was elected, it was fairly clear that one way or the other
>>slavery was going.  That was a $30 billion dollar hit on the south's
>>"capital," and people could see it coming.  (Don't take this as advocating
>>anything!)
>
>But wasn't it the North that attacked the South? (Don't take this as 
>advocating anything either - I'm not commenting on the morality of it - 
>but from what I've read it was the northerners going "let's go stomp those 
>slave-owning southerners" not vice versa.)

"The Civil War began when, under orders from President Jefferson Davis 
Confederate General P.G.T. Beauregard opened fire upon Fort Sumter in 
Charleston, South Carolina on April 12, 
1861."  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War

>I think we've explored this question about as far as is going to be 
>feasible here - to do the sort of detailed analysis required for a more 
>rigorous test would, as you say, be a huge research job. The approach of 
>applying evolutionary psychology makes sense, but to the extent the theory 
>makes predictions, those predictions don't seem to me to be borne out in 
>real history;

You would not expect them to be borne out in more than a probabilistic 
sense, but I don't know of any wars that were started by people who were 
looking at a bright future, and lots that were started by people facing an 
awful situation, Easter Island being the worst.

>though while encouraging economic growth through technological advance 
>isn't a silver bullet, it's certainly helpful.

It isn't a sliver bullet.  It is the numerator of income per capita.  If 
"capita" grows faster it's gonna be time for war sooner or later.

Read that article by Anzar Gat.

Keith Henson