[extropy-chat] On difficult choices (was: Books: Harris; Religion and Reason)

Dirk Bruere dirk.bruere at gmail.com
Wed Jan 18 13:58:00 UTC 2006


On 1/18/06, Marc Geddes <m_j_geddes at yahoo.com.au> wrote:
>
> >### My 95% confidence interval for the SAI-driven
> Singularity is 2015 to 2050, squarely within our
> generation's lifetimes.
>
> You can't give a confidence interval as high as 95%
> but yes, I do agree with your date range.  I can't see
> the Singularity taking longer than 2050 if it's
> possible at all, and I give it a 50-50 chance of
> happening before 2030.
>
> I don't see seed-AI as being likely to be created by
> any of the well known groups however (for instance
> Sing Inst).
>
>
I see a true AI as most likely evolving from a slice-and-map simulation of
an existing brain.
OTOH, maybe a singularity could be generated simply by non general AI progs
like genetic algorithms coupled with data mining tools creating a vast array
of inventions beyond human capability to understand.

Dirk
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20060118/8589efbb/attachment.html>


More information about the extropy-chat mailing list