[extropy-chat] Impeachment of President Bush What odds am Ioffered?

[Hal Finney]

Brett writes:
> Let's say I agree to take your odds Hal, are there any UK based
> extropes that you would be willing to have hold our stakes? Or 
> alternatively, how would you propose to proceed? Reply offlist if
> you prefer. 

I need a few days right now to deal with a potentially serious medical
problem that could impair my ability to consummate this wager.  I will
try to get back to you next week.  In the mean time you may take heart
from this recent poll:

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=12528

:  Zogby poll: Majority supports impeaching Bush for wiretapping
:
:  WASHINGTON, D.C. - By a margin of 52 to 43 percent, citizens want
:  Congress to impeach President Bush if he wiretapped American citizens
:  without a judge's approval, according to a new poll commissioned
:  by AfterDowningStreet.org, a grassroots coalition that supports a
:  Congressional investigation of Pres. Bush's decision to invade Iraq
:  in 2003.
:
:  The poll was conducted by Zogby International.
:
:  The poll found that 52 percent of respondents agreed with the statement:
:  "If President Bush wiretapped American citizens without the approval of
:  a judge, do you agree or disagree that Congress should consider holding
:  him accountable through impeachment."
:
:  Of those contacted, 43 percent disagreed, and 6 percent said they
:  didn't know or declined to answer. The poll has a margin of error of
:  2.9 percent.
:  ...
:  Responses to the Zogby poll varied by political party affiliation:
:  76 percent of Democrats favored impeachment, compared to 50 percent of
:  independents and 29 percent of Republicans.
:
:  Responses also varied by age, sex, race, and religion. 70 percent of
:  those 18-29 favored impeachment, 51 percent of those 31-49, 50 percent
:  of those 50-64, and 42 percent of those older than 65. Among women,
:  56 percent favored impeachment, compared to 49 percent of men. Among
:  African Americans, 90 percent favored impeachment, compared to 67
:  percent of Hispanics, and 46 percent of whites.
:
:  The new Zogby poll shows a major shift in support for Bush's impeachment
:  since June 2005. In a Zogby poll conducted June 27-29, 2005 of 905
:  likely voters, 42 percent agreed and 50 percent disagreed with the
:  identical statement asked about in this recent polling.

I'm puzzled by this last paragraph.  How could they have asked the
identical question in June, 2005?  "If President Bush wiretapped American
citizens without the approval of a judge...?"  That didn't become a story
until December, whan an NSA insider leaked it.  I am quite certain that
wiretapping of American citizens without judicial approval was not a
topic on anyone's minds in June, because it was no public knowledge at
that time.

They might have asked about impeachment in general back in June, but
I don't see how they could have asked the same question.  Back then I
think the main issue would have been the Iraq war and claims made to
justify the invasion.

I sent a query to Zogby about this, we'll see if I hear back.

Hal