[extropy-chat] Bayes, betting and derivatives

Damien Sullivan phoenix at ugcs.caltech.edu
Mon Jun 5 21:39:06 UTC 2006

In light of Bayesian wannabes coming to agree on matters of fact, would
a pure population of Bayesian wannabes have use for a derivatives
market, or more generally for making bets?  Seems the point of a bet
(outside of games of pure chance) is the belief that you know more about
an outcome than the other guy.  But if a Bayesian offers a bet and
another Bayesian takes it, seems like both should pause for further
thought.  Actually, simple knowledge that someone was offering a bet
should make the second Bayesian pause to reconsider.

Robin?  Hal?  Help? :)

-xx- Damien X-) 

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