[extropy-chat] Climate skepticism patterns

[Rafal Smigrodzki]

On 6/8/06, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> On Thu, Jun 08, 2006 at 11:01:45AM -0500, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
>
> > ### Immense. An increase in the average temperatures will be very
> > useful to expand farming to feed the burgeoning population of the
> > world. The benefits of even modest warming have been calculated by
>
> What about those regions with lots of population, subsistence agriculture
> which will be hit by draught? There will be precipiation shifts, and
> arguably a decrease of arable land overall. Water wars will ensue,
> resulting in mayhem amplification. This is certainly difficult
> to quantify in $$$, as is loss of human life (Sahel & Co is perpetually
> fucked up, they really don't need a yet another hammer).

### This is a common assumption but to the best of my knowledge it is
not supported by research of appropriate quality. It is now well-known
that increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide greatly improves
plant growth, *especially* in the hottest climate, in deserts. The
mechanism has to do with the reduced need for respiration in plants
which have more CO2 in the air, which allows them to shut their
stomata, leading to less transpiration, and overall better growth. The
laboratory studies are borne out by observations of increased plant
growth in the Sahel region, well-noticeable on satellite images.

I have no doubt that there will be regions which will experience
negative economic consequences of warming and I agree with you that
nobody has yet sufficient data to confidently weigh them against the
expected gains.

Which is for me a sufficient reason to support massive spending on
research, and to not give a single penny for remediation or
restitution, until iron-clad data are available.

Rafal