[extropy-chat] Psychology of bad probability estimation

[Amara Graps]

(this is good!)

 From boingboing:

http://server1.sxsw.com/2006/coverage/SXSW06.INT.20060311.DanielGilbert.mp3
23MB MP3 Link

  Psychology of bad probability estimation: why lottos and terrorists matter

"Here's the audio from a South By Southwest 2006 presentation by
Harvard's Daniel Gilbert on the psychology of probability estimation.
This is important stuff -- it explains why we're socially willing to
commit nigh-infinite social resources to fighting terrorism, though
statistically, terrorist attacks almost never happen; though we barely
lift a finger to help save people from routine traffic accidents,
backyard pool drownings, and asthma, which mow down our neighbors by the
thousands. It explains why people buy lottery tickets. It explains a
great deal about many kinds of human activity. This is both sensible and
entertaining audio, and it's got a great title: "How to Do Precisely the
Right Thing at All Possible Times." "

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Amara Graps, PhD          email: amara at amara.com
Computational Physics     vita:  ftp://ftp.amara.com/pub/resume.txt
Multiplex Answers         URL:   http://www.amara.com/
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"We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." --Anais Nin