[extropy-chat] Psychology of bad probability estimation

[spike]

> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike
...
> Theoretical terrorism makes a compelling case for not investing in
> subways,
> because they are *inherently* difficult to defend from a terrorist.  Since
> tunnels trap heat, one could slay a bunch of infidels with a few dollars
> worth of flammable liquid and a simple time delay igniter.  Since one need
> not give one's identity to board a subway, one could get away with it
> without even going to meet one's 73 virgins.  Looks to me like investments
> in subways are a waste, now and henceforth forever.  Cities will develop
> differently knowing that mass transit via subway is impractical.
> 
> spike


Altho a remarkable coincidence, I wrote the above paragraph a few hours
before this report showed up on CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/06/17/subway.plot/index.html


Report: Al Qaeda planned N.Y. subway attack

Saturday, June 17, 2006; Posted: 11:30 p.m. EDT (03:30 GMT) 

Osama bin Laden's top deputy halted a plot to release a poison gas in New
York's subway system "only 45 days from zero hour," according to a new book
excerpted Saturday on Time magazine's Web site.

Two former U.S. officials with knowledge of the terror plan confirmed to CNN
on Saturday night some details from Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Ron
Suskind's "The One Percent Doctrine," but disagreed with others.

One former official agreed that bin Laden's second-in-command, Ayman
al-Zawahiri, called off the al Qaeda attack. The reason for his doing so was
not made clear.

Both former officials said the United States was familiar with the design of
the gas-dispersal device and had passed the information to state and local
officials.

They disagreed with Suskind that the terrorists were thwarted within 45 days
of the planned attack; the officials said the proposed timing was not that
precise. 

"We were aware of the plot and took appropriate precautions," Paul Browne,
New York City Police Department deputy commissioner, told CNN.

FBI spokesman Bill Carter said no one at the agency has seen the book and
had no comment.

According to Time's report on the book, U.S. intelligence learned of the
plot from the contents of a laptop computer belonging to a Bahraini jihadist
captured in Saudi Arabia early in 2003. 

Terrorists had planned to disperse hydrogen-cyanide gas, which is deadly
when inhaled, using a system dubbed "the mubtakkar," meaning "invention" in
Arabic, the Time article says.

The CIA immediately set about building a prototype based on the captured
design, which had separate chambers for sodium cyanide and a stable source
of hydrogen, such as hydrochloric acid. A seal between the two could be
broken remotely, producing the gas for dispersal, according to Time.

"In the world of terrorist weaponry," Suskind writes, "this was the
equivalent of splitting the atom. Obtain a few widely available chemicals,
and you could construct it with a trip to Home Depot -- and then kill
everyone in the store."

The device was shown to President Bush and Vice President Cheney, Suskind
wrote.

One of the former officials who talked to CNN said officials didn't
necessarily believe Suskind's reference to the device having the capability
of killing "everyone in a store."

"Our feeling was, it could be dangerous in a tightly sealed environment but
not in a shopping mall-type environment," the official said.

On the other hand, the reference to a tip about the gas-dispersion device as
coming from Bahrain was true, one of the officials confirmed to CNN. But the
official could not confirm whether it came from a laptop belonging to Yusef
al Ayeri, bin Laden's top operative on the Arabian Peninsula.

Al Ayeri was killed in a gun battle between Saudi security forces and al
Qaeda militants about the time the United States invaded Iraq in March 2003.


Suskind quotes a CIA operative as questioning whether it was an accident
that the Saudis killed the man who could expose a cell that was planning a
chemical weapons attack in the United States.

"The Saudis just shrugged," Time quotes the source as telling Suskind. "They
said their people got a little overzealous."

A mole within al Qaeda?
Suskind, according to Time, writes that a "management-level" al Qaeda
operative identified as "Ali" had given U.S. agents accurate tips and had
believed his leaders had erred in attacking the United States on September
11, 2001.

"Ali revealed that Ayeri had visited Ayman Zawahiri in January 2003 to
inform him of a plot to attack the New York City subway system using cyanide
gas. Several mubtakkars were to be placed in subway cars and other strategic
locations," according to the Time report.

"Ali did not know the precise explanation why" al-Zawahiri called off the
plot, Time quoted Suskind as writing. "He just knew that Zawahiri had called
them off." 

Meanwhile, administration officials wondered why Ali was cooperating -- and
why the plot was called off, Suskind wrote, according to Time.

Time magazine is owned by Time-Warner, the parent company of CNN