[extropy-chat] Psychology of investments in infrastructure

[spike]

> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Samantha Atkins
> Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Psychology of bad probability estimation
> 
> Changing our plans, even for mass transit, for what you yourself
> admit is a extraordinarily small possibility does not strike me as
> reasonable...


Regardless of the truth of this report, subways are inherently vulnerable to
gas attacks as the Japanese found out on 20 March 1995.  First time such an
attack is attempted in the US, passenger levels will drop off steeply and
permanently, then the entire system is no longer commercially viable.  It is
a bad investment because of the inherent risk even today.  

Does anyone here think that terrorism will quietly go away?  Who thinks that
terrorism will stay as it is now: an occasional successful attack with many
more planned attacks caught before they can be carried out?  Who here thinks
that terrorism will escalate?

I think that it will escalate, don't know how much, and that subways and
freeway tunnels are the logical target.

> Can this society get off the Fear drug and get on with
> life again?

We are on with life again.

>   It is certainly not possible to
> eliminate or guard against all that we may fear will do us
harm...-samantha

Ja we cannot reasonably guard against all possible attacks, but we can
invest according to our best estimate of risk.  I am suggesting that
vulnerable stuff like subways are a bad investment with current technology.

spike