[extropy-chat] Psychology of investments in infrastructure

[Eugen Leitl]

On Sun, Jun 18, 2006 at 04:17:29PM -0700, spike wrote:

> Does anyone here think that terrorism will quietly go away?  Who thinks that

Which terrorism? Statistically, there is no terrorism.

> terrorism will stay as it is now: an occasional successful attack with many
> more planned attacks caught before they can be carried out?  Who here thinks

What makes you think there are many credible attacks caught for each successful 
one? (I personally think the ratio is way worse than 1:1, and a determined
attacker will not be detected in time).

> that terrorism will escalate?

I personally wouldn't start worrying yet.
 
> I think that it will escalate, don't know how much, and that subways and
> freeway tunnels are the logical target.

Chemical weapons are not that interesting. You need a lot of them,
weaponized properly, and they don't do that much of a damage.
 
> Ja we cannot reasonably guard against all possible attacks, but we can
> invest according to our best estimate of risk.  I am suggesting that

I agree! Let's commit resources to combat the greatest killers:
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005110.html

> vulnerable stuff like subways are a bad investment with current technology.

I think your risk perception is quite askew. (Having this said, I personally
wouldn't want to live/work in Manhattan, which has black swan landing place
written all over it).

-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820            http://www.ativel.com
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