[extropy-chat] Hanson on Creativity, Overconfidence

[Robin Hanson]

Here is a new OpEd, and a math paper draft.
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http://www.businessweek.com/premium/content/06_27/b3991115.htm
http://hanson.gmu.edu/BusinessWeek-7-3-06.htm

The Myth Of Creativity
Innovation matters, but releasing your inner bohemian isn't the answer
Business Week July 3, 2006

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http://hanson.gmu.edu/overconf.pdf

                   Causes of Confidence in Conflict
                          by Robin Hanson

In a simple model of conflict, two agents fight over a fixed prize, 
and how hard they
fight depends on what they believe about their abilities. To this 
model I add "pre-agents,"
representing parents, leaders, or natural selection, who choose each agent's
confidence in his ability. Depending on the reason for such 
confidence, I find five different
patterns in how confidence varies with ability. Agents who estimate 
their ability
with error have under-confidence when ability is high and 
over-confidence when ability
is low, while strategic commitment incentives induce the opposite 
pattern. Agents who
misjudge their value for the prize, relative to their cost of effort, 
induce an over- or
under-confidence that is independent of ability, while cooperating 
pre-agents choose
extreme under-confidence. Agents who ignore a signaling value of 
confidence induce a
relatively uniform over-confidence.
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Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323