[extropy-chat] Peak Oil news

[Robin Hanson]

At 08:10 AM 3/8/2006, Lee Corbin wrote:
>I venture to say that anyone who's studied Gold's fine book
>will significantly change his odds more towards the abiotic
>theory, (even if he retains probability at less than
>fifty percent).

This can only be true on average for rational people if they do not believe
your claim.   If I believed you that my odds would go up after reading the
book, I would just raise my odds in anticipation of that, even if I never read
the book.   If I am rational, I must expect that reading a book arguing for
a position on some subject will be as likely to move me away from that
position as to move me closer.  (More precisely my expected value of
my future expectation must equal my current expectation.)




Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323