[extropy-chat] Peak Oil news
pharos at gmail.com
Wed Mar 8 15:20:59 UTC 2006
On 3/8/06, Lee Corbin wrote:
> I totally agree that lotteries tend to be just a tax on stupidity,
> (although I'm open to the idea that perhaps some poor people have
> weird preferences regarding their fantasy-driven entertainment.)
> This is not the same thing: folks buying stocks are much, much
> more serious.
No, *really*, they're not. It is just a better educated, slightly
higher IQ gamble.
Pick your stocks by throwing darts at the stock list. You will do
better than half the professionals around. And of the professionals
that beat the average this year, most won't next year. That is why the
advice is to never buy into last year's stock winners. They have the
record and the good forecasts, but top performance rarely carries
forward into the following year.
Top performance is mostly luck, with too many unpredictable random
factors. Careful detailed analysis is good for the steady and sure
investor, but will not lead to top performance. You might as well
just buy into one of the 'tracker' mutual funds and get the benefit of
long term market growth. Buffet is about the best investor around, but
he spent years being rubbished because he would not buy into the tech
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