[extropy-chat] Peak Oil news

Gary Miller aiguy at comcast.net
Thu Mar 9 04:42:10 UTC 2006

Even if abiotic oil is real or there is a lot more oil down there than we
previously thought isn't the real limitation on meeting increased oil demand
the current small number of world refineries and high cost/long time frame
of building new ones?

I have not read where the world is building new refineries at a pace which
will keep up with world demand.

Saudi Arabia has claimed during the recent gas hikes that if they increased
oil supply that the refining capacity did not exist to bring the gas prices
down.  Even the rather minor hurricane disruption last year caused major
spikes in gas prices.

Add to this the greater risk of terrorist action against the world
refineries as evidenced in Saudi Arabia and increased risk of disruption of
oil supply due to war in the unstable middle east and the probabilities seem
to add up to at least one major disruption in the oil supply before 2010.

Add to this the greater risk of more hurricane disruptions in the gulf due
to the 30 year hurricane cycle we are starting into.

If such an incident occurred though would oil prices go up or down?

We would lose partial capacity to process the existing oil currently on oil
carriers or existing within the capacity of the oil pipelines.

I would anticipate that gas prices would soar but oil prices might actually

How could one best invest to capitalize on these combined risks?

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