[extropy-chat] "The Singularity Myth"

[Robin Hanson]

At 06:30 PM 3/18/2006, Lee Corbin wrote:
> > > Is everyone here still a true believer when it comes to the Singularity?
>
>I am.  ... what year artificial intelligence achieves a kind of
>take-off that leaves unenhanced humans in the dust. In 1990 or so ...
>I went on record as predicting 2050 for a nanotech breakthrough and
>2061 for when (if things went well) I'd be unfrozen.  ... 2060 or so
>for a singularity.

My talk here at Oxford puts me on record as predicting dramatically
accelerated economic growth within the next century (95% confidence
interval)  with a median date of 2050.
<http://streaming.oii.ox.ac.uk:554/ramgen/archive/sbs/jmi2006/16032006-1>http://streaming.oii.ox.ac.uk:554/ramgen/archive/sbs/jmi2006/16032006-1.rm 





Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323