[extropy-chat] "The Singularity Myth"
sjatkins at mac.com
Sun Mar 19 10:02:50 UTC 2006
On Mar 19, 2006, at 12:59 AM, Damien Sullivan wrote:
> On Sun, Mar 19, 2006 at 12:34:10AM -0800, Lee Corbin wrote:
>> Damien Sullivan writes
>>> Good caveat. I wrote a Usenet post on various types:
>>>> Calling the singularity... a myth seems unfounded. It's hard to
>>>> imagine any alternative (short of civilization collapse) over
>>>> the next couple of hundred years.
>>> AI never happens, or never becomes cheap enough to compete with
>>> humans in
>>> most applications.
>> But isn't "never" an awfully long time?
> Hmm, maybe, for getting intelligent behavior in machines. Getting
> intelligent behavior... maybe for that level of efficient
> processing power
> brains are really really good.
We are pretty aware of their limits. And we have them as a possible
model of how to do (or not do) some things needed.
> Also, "doesn't happen in the next couple of hundred years" doesn't
> have to be
It most likely will be if we cant get there within no more than 50
imho. Our intelligence (not just IQ but also ethical/political
intelligence) is most likely not sufficient to avoid non-criticality
for long even at this level of technology. We may not completely
destroy ourselves if the worse happens, but it will be a very long
and painful climb back out of the huge hole we will dig.
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