[extropy-chat] "The Singularity Myth"

[Samantha Atkins]

On Mar 19, 2006, at 12:59 AM, Damien Sullivan wrote:

> On Sun, Mar 19, 2006 at 12:34:10AM -0800, Lee Corbin wrote:
>> Damien Sullivan writes
>
>>> Good caveat.  I wrote a Usenet post on various types:
>>> http://www.mindstalk.net/typesofsing.html
>
>>>> Calling the singularity... a myth seems unfounded. It's hard to
>>>> imagine any alternative (short of civilization collapse) over
>>>> the next couple of hundred years.
>>>
>>> AI never happens, or never becomes cheap enough to compete with  
>>> humans in
>>> most applications.
>>
>> But isn't "never" an awfully long time?
>
> Hmm, maybe, for getting intelligent behavior in machines.  Getting  
> *cheap*
> intelligent behavior... maybe for that level of efficient  
> processing power
> brains are really really good.
>

We are pretty aware of their limits.  And we have them as a possible  
model of how to do (or not do) some things needed.

> Also, "doesn't happen in the next couple of hundred years" doesn't  
> have to be
> "never".

It most likely will be if we cant get there within no more than 50  
imho.  Our intelligence (not just IQ but also ethical/political  
intelligence) is most likely not sufficient to avoid non-criticality  
for long even at this level of technology.   We may not completely  
destroy ourselves if the worse happens, but it will be a very long  
and painful climb back out of the huge hole we will dig.

- samantha