[extropy-chat] ENERGY IN 2020: technological scenario
jose_cordeiro at yahoo.com
Sun Mar 26 03:38:44 UTC 2006
Dear energy experts,
Please take a look at this technological scenario for energy in 2020:
The analysis is based on the answers from an international group of experts who answered a previous Millennium Project questionnaire. After the Delphi survey, I coordinated writing this scenario and we greatly appreciate your comments and/or suggestions. The scenario is timed in 2020 to match the other three scenarios (business as usual, environmental backlash and geopolitical crises) but it is rather more future oriented.
José Luis Cordeiro (www.cordeiro.org)
Chair, Venezuela Node, The Millennium Project (www.acunu.org)
Millennium Project 2020 Global Energy Delphi Round 2 Part 3
On behalf of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University, we have the honor to invite you to participate in the third phase of an international study to construct alternative global energy scenarios to the year 2020.
During the first phase, the Millennium Projects staff produced an annotated bibliography of global energy scenarios and related reports. This was used to design a Delphi questionnaire that collected judgments and some 3,000 comments from about 150 participants on potential developments that might affect the future of the global energy situation. These results were used to construct draft scenarios. Your views are invited to make these working draft scenarios more plausible and useful. They are for your review only and not for circulation, as they are rough working drafts. The working draft of the third scenario is attached for your review. It explores potential futures resulting from new technologies; the next scenario will probe the effects of political turmoil. The two previous scenarios circulated over the past two weeks looked at a business as usual future and an environmental backlash future.
The results of all three phases of this international study will be published in the 2006 State of the Future. Complimentary copies will be sent to those who respond to the questionnaires. No attributions will be made, but respondents will be listed as participants.
Please submit your views on scenario 3: Technology Pushes Off the Limits to Growth by March 30, 2006 by answering online, http://www.acunu.org/millennium/energy-technology.html, or by e-mail of the attached file to Elizabeth Florescu acunu at igc.org with a copy to jglenn at igc.org and tedjgordon at worldnet.att.net. We look forward to including your views in the final construction of this scenario. You will receive the fourth scenario within a week.
Jerome C. Glenn, Director, Millennium Project
Theodore J. Gordon, Senior Fellow, Millennium Project
American Council for the United Nations University
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