[extropy-chat] singularity conference at stanford

[Eugen Leitl]

On Mon, May 15, 2006 at 07:53:06AM -0700, Metavalent Stigmergy wrote:

> I don't quite follow your comment, Russel.  If you are saying that
> increasingly impressive life extension is a fantasy, or that the

Where do you see an impressive life extension, in people?
What we see is that CR appears to work, and that someday
(not necessarily this decade) there might be a drug to 
mimick the effects of CR with tolerable side effects.
Might. We don't know for sure yet.

Okay, assume I have another 60 years in front of me, instead
of 40-50. I've been waiting for 25 years for things to
arrive I assumed were highly probable, if not granted.
Why should AI and nano land by 2050-2070? It's not that there's
a train schedule, or even a roadmap with milestones to
check off. (If there is, I must have missed my copy).

> continual improvement of AI is a fantasy, I'd be interested to learn

I see no continual improvement in AI which will lead to 
robust, natural intelligence. A quantitative discontinuity
is needed. Just adding more patchwork to the quilt won't be
enough.

The bad thing about discontinuities is that they're so hard
to predict.

> what data or personal observations you use to form those particular
> characterizations.  Not saying you're wrong, just interested in how
> you got there.

Don't get me wrong, I like optimism. But you can get hurt by being
too optimistic, this is why I wonder how you got at your assessment.

-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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