[extropy-chat] Bluff and the Darwin award

[Eugen Leitl]

On Tue, May 16, 2006 at 10:08:07AM -0700, Adrian Tymes wrote:

> What would be the problem with a - very - slow warmup to Singularity,
> taking until 2150 or so?  Say, if it takes 100 years to develop fully

Do you think we can continue for the next 150 years, basically
as before? Most of what we're doing is unsustainable, so we
better get our asses in gear to develop some really dramatic
technology, pronto. Orelse we could really pull one of the 
usual ones, straight from Collapse -- only on a larger scale.

> human-equivalent AI software after we have human-equivalent AI
> hardware, which happens in 2050.

Using which metric? Why should we have molecular circuitry in 45 years?
Sure, it's possible. But I can't put a probability on it.
 
> (Granted, I don't think it's likely to take 100 years.  But neither do
> I see it as impossible.)

The past is full of wrong predictions nobody remembers,
so why should this one be different?

Not to rain upon your parade; I sure would like to see some action.
But so far, the delivery is distinctly lacking -- both in style,
and in substance.

-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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