[extropy-chat] Effective relationships

[Eliezer S. Yudkowsky]

Anders Sandberg wrote:
> 
> My model would be a small Markov chain with three states: S, single, T,
> triad/tetrad, and D for dyad. S can move to T with P(s->t) and D with
> P(s->d). If there are transitions between all three it is nicely ergodic
> and we can get a stable long term distribution just by calculating the
> biggest eigenvalue of the transition matrix.
> 
> I'm sitting in an internet cafe right now so I can't prove anything
> strictly, but I'm pretty sure that one can prove that if the steady state
> distribution overwhelmingly promotes S and D over T, it implies that
> either the probabilities leading to T are extremely low or that P(T->T) is
> lower than P(D->D) and/or P(S->S). Hmm, sounds like entertainment for my
> flight home.

But people die all the time, alas.  So triads or tetrads might have low 
formation probabilities, very low breakup probabilities due to 
unhappiness, but with the ergodic state still dominated by death.  Make 
people immortal and *then* we'll draw conclusions.

-- 
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence