[extropy-chat] it's all understandable, except

[Colin Geoffrey Hales]

> On Mon, Nov 06, 2006 at 12:01:41PM -0500, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
>
>> ### Jeez, Eugen, you sound depressed. Reading libertarian-leaning
>
> No, just not irrationally exhuberant. You might or might not remember
> that just prior to the .bomb I wasn't exactly exhuberant, either.
> Where others saw the gleaming outskirts of the Singularity, I only saw a
> bubble about to pop. Well, I hate to repeat myself, but this one is
> going to be a really Big One. The only thing I don't know for sure is
> when exactly. Some say as early as 2007, some put that at 2012.
> It's hard to tell, because it's punctuated equilibrium psychology
> thing. In a number of different universes it has happened already.
>

Hi Eugene... I am still aiming for 2012. Although it is looking a little
opimistic at the moment. So put me down for the 2012 timeslot with an
option for 2015.

My chip design proof of principle simulations will be done 2010 (end of my
PhD - it's my project). Then chip fabrication for the first experiments to
prove the chips are having experiences. After that it'll get let loose on
humanity and 7 billion pairs of hands might give it a leg up. Although I
still think we're gonna have trouble wanting them to be alive! The first
creatures will be sort of single-cell-scientists. A bridge of them
comparing notes, doing science on novelty (novelty to them, anyway). The
scientists are all inside each other, able to compare experiences.
Grafting human brains together to do the equivalent on humans has a few
ethical hurdles!

It all depends on whther the AGI that results can sort out the nanotech
required for the subsequent versions of the chips. Until that is done
they'll all be made with existing fabrication/embodiment techniques and no
self-replication will be involved. So the exact timing is a bit debatable.

There's going to be a big change to science next year, tho. A sort of
Kuhnian shake-out. I'm madly pressing all those buttons right now. I
suppose I'm pressing it here too. It's slowly sinking in. I'm hammering 3
other email forums (fora?) as best I can. I am on a leave of absence from
my PhD until Jan and after that I won't have time to press that button any
more. Don't think the science thing counts as a singularity, however.
Although historians might view it that way.

All good fun, regardless.

:-)

Colin Hales