[extropy-chat] US election prediction markets failure

Hal Finney hal at finney.org
Wed Nov 15 04:24:02 UTC 2006


Keep in mind that if a prediction market puts the odds of an event
happening at 70%, as was roughly the case for the Republican Senate issue,
it should come out the other way 30% of the time.  If a market with those
kind of odds were to get it right 100% of the time, that would actually
be a failure of the prediction.

Hal



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