[extropy-chat] 'a process of non-thinking called faith' 2 (2)

[Eugen Leitl]

On Sun, Nov 26, 2006 at 04:21:13PM -0500, Brent Neal wrote:

> What I'm seeing in the consensus estimates is that a correction of  
> 10-20% is likely, lasting around 18 months (although some sites have  

I think 30-40% would be more accurate. Oh, and how does Dow Jones
of 2000-3000 sound like?

> tossed out the number of 3.5 years as 'typical' for these corrective  
> cycles.

This cycle is unprecedented in the magnitude, though.
 
> There are a couple of articles I've read (there's one in particular  
> I'll try to find to send) that point out that in order for housing to  
> reach "historical affordability levels" (i.e., return to some  
> arbitrarily chosen growth curve) that the correction would have to be  
> around 30%.  This article was sort of interesting in that they also  
> chose to point out some ameliorating and otherwise optimistic  
> assumptions being used by most of the "consensus" reports, and goes  
> in with a deliberate bias towards choosing more pessimistic outcomes  
> in order to get a worst-case-esque scenario.

Everybody should cover for low-probability high-risk outcomes.

-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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