[extropy-chat] Tyranny in place
sjatkins at mac.com
Thu Oct 5 08:08:31 UTC 2006
On Oct 3, 2006, at 6:41 PM, Joseph Bloch wrote:
> Oh, I've read it, and others like it.
> I still dismiss it.
> In regards to the first point, which is the most potentially damning
> an objective sense, I can speak as an expert in the field, being
> of Election Polling for one of the largest (and most accurate in the
> 2004 election cycle) public opinion polling companies in the country.
> The argument that exit polls in 2004 bespoke of any wrongdoing is
> completely inaccurate. It completely misses the point of what exit
> are supposed to do; not predict winners and losers, but give insight
> into the characteristics of the supporters of each candidate. Indeed,
> the man in charge of the exit polling in 2004 made a spectacularly
> public mia culpa at an AAPOR conference, where he admitted that the
> polls were dead wrong. See:
Well that is a problem because the exit polls historically and
statistically are not so dead wrong. So why this time? That is the
problem. This statement without explaining the discrepancy this time
adequately is not evidence that the polls were wrong. Also the use
of the exit polls is not limited in the way you claim.
> The rest I dismiss as the same sort of partisan wrangling that one
> in any election.
Fine. You are not competent by reason of obvious prejudice to judge
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