[extropy-chat] Probability of identity - solution?

[Robin Hanson]

At 11:51 AM 10/13/2006, Russell Wallace wrote:
>On 10/13/06, Robin Hanson <<mailto:rhanson at gmu.edu>rhanson at gmu.edu> wrote:
>The situation you describe is one that could be repeated again and
>again.   After many repetitions you could compare the frequencies you
>see in your history to the probabilities you had assigned.    Or you
>could make bets based on your probabilities and see whether such bets
>win or lose on average.
>
>Ah, but which "you"?

For long enough histories, almost everyone should see statistics where
frequencies are close to probabilities.

>That having been said, what would be your answer to the paradox then?

I'm not sure, not having thought about this in enough detail.   But I'm more
sure that there is a right answer.



Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323