[extropy-chat] Doomsday argument
eugen at leitl.org
Mon Oct 16 07:01:58 UTC 2006
On Sun, Oct 15, 2006 at 10:27:20PM -0400, George Dvorsky wrote:
> Self-sampling most definitely gives strength to the Doomsday Argument.
I find it interesting that so many subscribe to the SSA religiously.
You don't have any degrees of freedom at all in this experiment
> The fact that I find myself as an individual in pre-Singularity
Wherever you go, there you are. You're not an omniscient
external observer, randomly picking items from the same
reference class. You're only observing an infinitely self-biased
sample of one: yourself.
> existence is a very troubling observation, particularly given the
I only find it troubling, that people are taking number games
> assumption that there should be far more post-Singularity individuals
> than in a pre-Singularity civ. It also indicates that the most probable
> observation of a civ is pre-Singularity and not post, a possible
> indicator that there are no post-Singularity civs.
Only if you build on invalid premises.
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com
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