[extropy-chat] Probability of identity - solution?.

[Robin Hanson]

On 10/13/2006, Russell Wallace wrote:
>suppose you're copied into 2 copies, A and B, then B is copied into 
>999, should you subjectively expect to have a 1/2 probability of 
>finding "yourself" as A, as intuition and causal logic would 
>suggest, or 1/1000, as measure accounting would suggest?

On reflection, I say 1/1000.    If this situation is repeated many 
times, that is the frequency that will be recorded in the vast 
majority of agent history statistics.


Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
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