[extropy-chat] Probability of identity - solution?

[John K Clark]

Russell Wallace Wrote:

> suppose you're copied into 2 copies, A and B, then B is copied into 999,
> should you subjectively expect to have a 1/2 probability of finding
> "yourself" as A, as intuition and causal logic would suggest, or 1/1000,
> as measure accounting would suggest?)

After the copying if you asked A he would say there was a 100% probability
that his identity had been successfully transferred to him, and he would be
correct. If you asked B he would say there was a 100% probability that his
identity had been successfully transferred to him, and he would be correct.
If you asked one of B's 999 copies he would say there was a 100% probability
his identity had been successfully transferred to copy number 721 and he
would be correct too. You can't ask C, the person before any copying was
done, his opinion on which one was him because he was yesterday, he doesn't
exist today.

None of this is a logical paradox, it's just an odd situation. It's unusual
because up to now human copying machines are rather few and far between. But
that need not always be true. I have a hunch the Singularity will produce
far stranger things than that, so you'd better get used to it.

  John K Clark