[extropy-chat] The Drake Equation and Spatial Proximity

Damien Sullivan phoenix at ugcs.caltech.edu
Wed Oct 25 19:12:11 UTC 2006

On Wed, Oct 25, 2006 at 12:24:14AM -0400, Keith Henson wrote:
> At 07:53 PM 10/23/2006 +0200, Eugen wrote:
> >On Mon, Oct 23, 2006 at 12:32:12PM -0400, Keith Henson wrote:
> >
> > > 1.  We are the first (at least inside our light cone).
> >
> >Why do people have trouble buying this explanation? That we're
> >in nobody's smart lightcone, I mean? It's perfectly simple and
> >adequate, a single explanation for all our data, or rather, lack
> >thereof.
> It violates the Mediocrity principle.  There is an extensive article on 

Which works only if there's a non-degenerate distribution for us to be
an average member of.  If the expected number of spacefaring civs in the
galaxy is 0 or 1, because the first such civ takes everything over, then
Mediocrity has nothing to say.

-xx- Damien X-) 

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