[extropy-chat] About ESP, etc.
gts_2000 at yahoo.com
Mon Apr 30 17:58:59 UTC 2007
On Mon, 30 Apr 2007 13:24:59 -0400, Benjamin Goertzel <ben at goertzel.org>
> -- Basically, you then want to bet more when a lot of "10's etc." have
> been dealt, and bet less when a lot of "2-6"'s have been dealt. Because
> you are more likely to get screwed when hit with a "10 etc." than with a
You have it exactly backward, Ben. :)
The card-counter increases his wager when a lot of low cards and non-aces
have been dealt, because the odds favor of the player when the deck is
rich in high cards and aces.
Two basic reasons why this works:
1) A preponderance of high cards in the deck works against the house
because the dealer must hit to reach 17 or better on a stiff hand (12 thru
16), likely busting with a high-card, while the player can avoid going
over 21 by standing on a stiff.
2) A preponderance of high cards + aces in the deck works in favor of the
player because of the increased probability of someone at the table
getting a blackjack. It could be the dealer who gets a blackjack, but
blackjacks favor the player over the dealer because of the asymmetry in
the payoffs: blackjacks pay a player 1.5 x the original bet only 1x for
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