From amara at amara.com Sat Dec 1 02:41:54 2007 From: amara at amara.com (Amara Graps) Date: Fri, 30 Nov 2007 19:41:54 -0700 Subject: [ExI] abandon all services Message-ID: scerir: >that the present birth rate might be 'supported' >(possibly) by the population of immigrants. That immigrants thing again. I challenge you to spend time at the Roma Questura (on the outskirts of Rome) that processes the permessos for the extracommunitari. The queue begins at 4am. You can experience first-hand the result of the Bossi-Fini immigration law. Notice how the Questura uniformly treat the immigrants in the spectrum of people you see (business suits to field workers) as sub-humans. Those people just want to work, and they cannot. Don't be surprised if a few might be angry and engage in petty theft, but that's the minority. Most of extracommunitari who are not Australians or New Zealanders or Canadians or Americans or Russians or Chinese (i.e. those who either marry or leave) sell roses, beg to wash your windshields on street intersections, or sell purses, because that's all that they can do. They leave the in-fighting and bickering and backstabbing and distrust and larger-scale thefts to the home indigenous crowd. People like the clerks at Poste Italiane. They are Italians, not immigrants because immigrants can't get that kind of job. They are probably 40 years old, living at home, given that job by their uncle and unable to buy that ?1,40 liter of milk. They need a Christmas gift for their girlfriends, and guess what? In front of them are 22 brown padded envelopes from a person with a Dr. in front of her name, sending to herself from her address in Italy to an address in the United States. That means that she is probably rich if she is spending her holiday in the U.S., and because she doesn't have an Italian name, it's OK if they slash open 42% of the envelopes. What a disappointment that they only contain notebooks in English and with numbers and strange math symbols and doesn't include Rolex watches. Oh, but Italians don't do that. It's always 'them' and never 'us' who do any of those things. Right? The firewall at the research area of Tor Vergata is in the strange configuration that it is because the network is attacked by both people trying to break in, and spammers working on the inside of the network. Who do you think is spamming their co-workers, those gypsies selling roses? Why do you think your cousin doesn't permit any of his administered computers inside of the network to have passwords and only allows more secure methods to log in? Why do you think every researcher except the stranieri (who can't imagine that one needs to lock their door against their co-workers) locks their door when they go to lunch? Who do you think stole that van full of solar physics sensing equipment that left in broad daylight from CNR? Immigrants? No, those people were probably lost in the black hole of the Questura in a queue trying to get a permesso. Italians did that. Your us', not 'them'. Please spend some time to watch the large number of the researchers waste the meager resources because they don't know how to work with each other and help each other. Ethics be damned, what's most important is to have your status and if you trample on a few graduate students who haven't any salaries for the last year because the Italian Space Agency didn't pay yet the contracts that they signed three years ago, so what? Graduate students and post docs are expendable resources. Whatever happens to them, it doesn't matter, because their Italian families will pick up the pieces. There will be more to take their places when the young person, who couldn't take it, leaves the field. Then, instead of 300 science students at Rome University out of 50,000 there will be 299. The other 49,300 students (who are specializing in television media) will have fewer technical people to check their text. If the journalists cut out the words of one scientist and write that DNA was found in the dust of comet Wild 2 on every major newspaper and on three television networks, few will know the difference. The few scientists in the country, who do know the difference, won't say a word because they are only happy that science is on the front page. And when the director of the observatory, where the poor researcher tried to correct the journalist, posts the big news of DNA found in the dust of the comet as Official News of the Observatory**, then so what? Tax-funded Italian scientists can feed garbage to the scientifically illiterate public with no violation of ethics. It's normal to Italy, right? The only person who criticized the observatory director was, in fact, an immigrant, with a temporary contract, renewed only every year, desperately poor, with no resources and no Italian family to support her. So I sincerely hope that a population of immigrants 'supports' the Italian birth rate. There might be less graffiti on the historical archeological structures, less trash on the roads, people who are kinder to each other, trust each other more, and treat each other with more respect. I will miss very much my friends in Italy, now that I've moved, but they are unfortunately very much like me and unlike what I write above and too few in number living there. Amara P.S. Is it any wonder that more than 50% of the accomplished work of the Italian Transhumanists is done by Italians who don't live in the country? -- Amara Graps, PhD www.amara.com Research Scientist, Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), Boulder, Colorado From scerir at libero.it Sat Dec 1 07:23:09 2007 From: scerir at libero.it (scerir) Date: Sat, 1 Dec 2007 08:23:09 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Evolutiion is not random,... References: <200711252325.lAPNP6gr029125@andromeda.ziaspace.com><394130.83672.qm@web31304.mail.mud.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <001d01c833eb$070e06b0$76971f97@archimede> Robert Picone: [...] the "underlying process of evolution", which is neither inherently random nor inherently deterministic. That seems close to something Schrodinger wrote in his inaugural address to the Prussian Academy of Sciences (1929). Schrodinger firstly asserts: "Franz Exner (to whom I am personally indebted for his exceptionally great support) was the first who contemplated the possibility of an acausal conception of nature." See here something about Exner's indeterminism http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/archive/00000624/00/FIRENZP4.doc Then he writes: "In my opinion this question [acausal concept of nature] does not involve a decision as to what the real character of a natural happening is, but rather as to whether the one or the other predisposition of mind be the more useful and convenient one with which to approach nature. [...]. We can hardly imagine any experimental facts which would finally decide whether Nature is absolutely determined or is partially indetermined. The most that can be decided is whether the one or the other concept leads to the simpler and clearer survey of all the observed facts." s. about the complexity of evolution .... http://www.virtualknowledgestudio.nl/staff/andrea-scharnhorst/heraeus.php From femmechakra at yahoo.ca Sat Dec 1 07:41:58 2007 From: femmechakra at yahoo.ca (Anna Taylor) Date: Sat, 1 Dec 2007 02:41:58 -0500 (EST) Subject: [ExI] abandon all services In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <377595.55567.qm@web30409.mail.mud.yahoo.com> Hi Amara, Based on my knowledge of the last few months of you're experience that you've stated, I've come to believe you have had a horrible experience, I'm sorry to hear that. I've never been to Italy. I can't assume to understand what it might have been like being a scientist in Italy as I can't even perceive what it's like to go to Italy as I haven't experienced it 8:) Should I visit? You've pretty much convinced me that it's not the greatest idea to try and develop Transhumanism ideas within the particular framework as it seems futile for a nation that has no technology that isn't working to achieve higher gains? Is this the cause? Just curious Anna Looking for a X-Mas gift? Everybody needs a Flickr Pro Account. http://www.flickr.com/gift/ From scerir at libero.it Sat Dec 1 11:04:15 2007 From: scerir at libero.it (scerir) Date: Sat, 1 Dec 2007 12:04:15 +0100 Subject: [ExI] abandon all services References: Message-ID: <001001c83409$ea34fbb0$f6961f97@archimede> Amara writes: That immigrants thing again. I challenge you to spend time at the Roma Questura (on the outskirts of Rome) that processes the permessos for the extracommunitari. The queue begins at 4am. [...] Please spend some time to watch the large number of the researchers waste the meager resources because they don't know how to work with each other and help each other. [...] So I sincerely hope that a population of immigrants 'supports' the Italian birth rate. There might be less graffiti on the historical archeological structures, less trash on the roads, people who are kinder to each other, trust each other more, and treat each other with more respect. # I can read about these things on papers. I can see these facts on the roads. Every day. Since long time. Sometimes I ask myself: do Italian artists represent this reality? I mean, 'present time' artists, not Dante and his 'Comedy'. I mean 'artists', not street-calligraphers. Well, I found nothing, personally. Nothing with the exception of two works of art. They are not new. But the artists created them exactly when the great kaos developed. ----- Renato Guttuso, 1974, 'Vuccir?a' (a market in Palermo, Sicily, 'Vucciria' means 'butchery', pron. voocceereeah) http://www.artinvest2000.com/vucciria.htm something more about the real place in Palermo http://travel.nytimes.com/2007/05/20/travel/20journeys.html ----- Federico Fellini, 1978, 'Prova d'Orchestra' (movie), http://www.brightlightsfilm.com/40/fellini.htm http://www.activitaly.it/immaginicinema/fellini/Prova_%20d_orchestra/fellini _prova_orchestra.htm In a Medieval Roman chapel, now an oratorio, an elderly factotum sets up for rehearsal. The musicians arrive, joking and teasing. A union shop steward explains that a TV crew is there, talking to them is optional, and there will be no extra compensation. Musicians talk about their instruments. The German conductor arrives and puts them through their paces. He yells, he insults. The shop steward calls a 20 minute break. The conductor retreats to his dressing room and talks about how the world of music has changed, moving away from respect for the conductor. He returns to the rehearsal to find the orchestra in full revolt. What can bring them back to the music? ----- s. "Painting is being inspired by what one sees, and thinks, be it a sunset, a tree, a pair of old shoes or a painting." -Renato Guttuso, 1966. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renato_Guttuso From kanzure at gmail.com Sun Dec 2 00:25:44 2007 From: kanzure at gmail.com (Bryan Bishop) Date: Sat, 1 Dec 2007 18:25:44 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Mailing list for the Transhumanist Technical Roadmap Message-ID: <200712011825.44507.kanzure@gmail.com> Hi all, http://heybryan.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/hplusroadmap This is my announcement relaying that I have opened a mailing list for the discussion of the roadmap; I am inviting every able body to join and to contribute. I will be breaking down the roadmap into emailed sections to be discussed, reviewed, edited, allowing for the suggestion of new projects and at the same time making contacts with productive researchers to get things rolling, outlining additional plans, seeking out the necessary resources, and so on. I am starting to break up the roadmap into pursuable projects, opening up some FTP accounts for the placement of important documents, such as designs or relevant literature, etc. In the case of those projects involving (open source) software, there will be version control systems installed. Transhumanism, in its essence, is about self-transformation, this devotion to change and to creating more. Each of us is solely responsible for the transformative technologies. When I sat down months ago to start the roadmap, I was not expecting such immediate support, and so now I am taking the next natural step on the journey. I wish you all well and hope you will join me on the path. - Bryan From spike66 at att.net Sun Dec 2 16:43:23 2007 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2007 08:43:23 -0800 Subject: [ExI] singularity summit on kqed In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <200712021710.lB2HA64b019423@andromeda.ziaspace.com> There was a commentary on the Singularity Summit on National Public Radio this morning from about 0745 to 0800 on KQED. Does anyone have a transcript of the show, or a recording on YouTube? It was reasonably well done, in that the ideas were not treated as futuristic sci-fi but rather as just a little outside mainstream thinking. They spent a lot of time on irrelevant matter having nothing to do with AI, such as Gary Kasparov's contest with Deep Blue and battle bots, but this could be expected in any singularity story made for public consumption. spike From amara at amara.com Sun Dec 2 19:04:33 2007 From: amara at amara.com (Amara Graps) Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2007 12:04:33 -0700 Subject: [ExI] abandon all services Message-ID: Anna: After any large injury or injustice or abuse or theft, the person needs time to recover, and I had since late summer intended Boulder to be my strong recovery strategy from my previous years. It's better that you not ask a person who is still trying to pay or make up for the stolen things and needs time to recover (me) and instead ask your question of an Italian scientist who still has hope. The person I am thinking of is not afraid to write about many of the Italian insanities and he lives in the north, too, so what he can say is more balanced: Tommaso Dorigo: Quantum Diaries Survivor http://dorigo.wordpress.com/ Also, read Beppe Grillo, a political activist comedian (his humor is wry, you might not get it right away): http://www.beppegrillo.it/english.php I can't imagine most of the Transhumanist goals succeeding there with the present infrastructure. Should you visit? It depends on your goals. If I didn't have my friends and volcanoes still there, I would not consider stepping a foot there again, but I'm not very balanced in my opinion right now. And of course, of any place, visiting a place is different than living in that place. Amara -- Amara Graps, PhD www.amara.com Research Scientist, Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), Boulder, Colorado From kanzure at gmail.com Sun Dec 2 19:39:04 2007 From: kanzure at gmail.com (Bryan Bishop) Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2007 13:39:04 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Books for the holidays? Message-ID: <200712021339.04840.kanzure@gmail.com> Hi all, Any scifi books that come highly recommended? Holiday season is here, and my time will free up for some intense reading, to which I say it's about time. I apologize in advance for the formatting in this email re: book titles. I do not think I will be doing it again. I recently finished reading Benford's _Tides of Light_ which was interesting because of the cyborg/podia creatures, though endlessly annoying because of the reduced English language that the main character spoke with. There were also embedded personality chips introduced in the story. (I also just finished _The Wild_). I have also been trying out some Cadigan, like _Mindplayers_ and _Synners_ as well as other cyberpunk like C. J. Cherryh and her _Cyteen_ (but got annoyed with the political backdrop). Carver's _Neptune Crossing_ and sequel _Strange Attractors_ are also in the input pile. I might have to do a rereading of _Diaspora_. All look interesting. At the moment I am finishing up Zindell's sf series that started with _Neverness_ and reading (half-way atm) _War in Heaven_. Other items in my stack include _Neuromancer_, _The Algebraist_, and _Hyperion_. What I am considering: _Gridlinked_ _The Line of Polity_ _Brass Man_ _Polity Agent_ all by Neil Asher _The Book of the New Sun_ which includes: ????????_The Shadow of the Torturer_ ????????_The Claw of the Conciliator_ ????????_The Sword of the Lictor_ ????????_The Citadel of the Autarch_ all by Gene Wolfe. _The Golden Age_ _The Phoenix Exultant_ _The Golden Transcendence_ all by John C. Wright And maybe it is time that I purchase a copy of _Accelerando_, _A Fire Upon the Deep_ and a paper back copy of _A Deepness in the Sky_. I have ordered: Greg Egan: _Schild's Ladder_ _Quarantine_ _Luminous_ _Permutation City_ _Brain Plague_ (Elysium Cycle) by Joan Slonczewski - Bryan From thespike at satx.rr.com Sun Dec 2 20:09:22 2007 From: thespike at satx.rr.com (Damien Broderick) Date: Sun, 02 Dec 2007 14:09:22 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Books for the holidays? In-Reply-To: <200712021339.04840.kanzure@gmail.com> References: <200712021339.04840.kanzure@gmail.com> Message-ID: <7.0.1.0.2.20071202140615.023678d0@satx.rr.com> Well, um : The White Abacus Transcension The Hunger of Time* (maybe; it's a simplified singularity) Godplayers/K-Machines by... Damien Broderick *with Rory Barnes From mbb386 at main.nc.us Sun Dec 2 20:43:09 2007 From: mbb386 at main.nc.us (MB) Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2007 15:43:09 -0500 (EST) Subject: [ExI] Books for the holidays? In-Reply-To: <200712021339.04840.kanzure@gmail.com> References: <200712021339.04840.kanzure@gmail.com> Message-ID: <32944.72.236.102.98.1196628189.squirrel@www.main.nc.us> Just for fun, consider Philip Pullman's "His Dark Materials" series: "The Golden Compass", "The Subtle Knife" and "The Amber Spyglass". They are young-adult and quick and pleasant. Plus a bit thought provoking. Not sure how extropian they are, but they do aim at "doing away with the finality of death"... although I'm not clear about the retention of consciousness! It seems implied but no description of how. Regards, MB > Hi all, > > Any scifi books that come highly recommended? Holiday season is here, > and my time will free up for some intense reading, to which I say it's > about time. > > I apologize in advance for the formatting in this email re: book titles. > I do not think I will be doing it again. > > I recently finished reading Benford's _Tides of Light_ which was > interesting because of the cyborg/podia creatures, though endlessly > annoying because of the reduced English language that the main > character spoke with. There were also embedded personality chips > introduced in the story. (I also just finished _The Wild_). I have also > been trying out some Cadigan, like _Mindplayers_ and _Synners_ as well > as other cyberpunk like C. J. Cherryh and her _Cyteen_ (but got annoyed > with the political backdrop). Carver's _Neptune Crossing_ and sequel > _Strange Attractors_ are also in the input pile. I might have to do a > rereading of _Diaspora_. All look interesting. At the moment I am > finishing up Zindell's sf series that started with _Neverness_ and > reading (half-way atm) _War in Heaven_. Other items in my stack include > _Neuromancer_, _The Algebraist_, and _Hyperion_. > > What I am considering: > > _Gridlinked_ > _The Line of Polity_ > _Brass Man_ > _Polity Agent_ > all by Neil Asher > > _The Book of the New Sun_ which includes: > _The Shadow of the Torturer_ > _The Claw of the Conciliator_ > _The Sword of the Lictor_ > _The Citadel of the Autarch_ > all by Gene Wolfe. > > _The Golden Age_ > _The Phoenix Exultant_ > _The Golden Transcendence_ > all by John C. Wright > > And maybe it is time that I purchase a copy of _Accelerando_, _A Fire > Upon the Deep_ and a paper back copy of _A Deepness in the Sky_. > > I have ordered: > > Greg Egan: > _Schild's Ladder_ > _Quarantine_ > _Luminous_ > _Permutation City_ > > _Brain Plague_ (Elysium Cycle) by Joan Slonczewski > > - Bryan > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > From James.Hughes at trincoll.edu Sun Dec 2 20:55:50 2007 From: James.Hughes at trincoll.edu (Hughes, James J.) Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2007 15:55:50 -0500 Subject: [ExI] [wta-talk] Books for the holidays? In-Reply-To: <200712021339.04840.kanzure@gmail.com> References: <200712021339.04840.kanzure@gmail.com> Message-ID: <8CF6A92CB628444FB3C757618CD280390637A800@exbe1.cmpcntr.tc.trincoll.edu> > Any scifi books that come highly recommended? Richard Morgan's Thirteen is an extremely thoughtful, well-written and fast-paced novel that reflects on a variety of post-human types about one hundred years from now, and how human-racism might shape transhuman law and relations. Highly recommended. J. From pharos at gmail.com Sun Dec 2 21:09:22 2007 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2007 21:09:22 +0000 Subject: [ExI] singularity summit on kqed In-Reply-To: <200712021710.lB2HA64b019423@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <200712021710.lB2HA64b019423@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: On Dec 2, 2007 4:43 PM, spike wrote: > > There was a commentary on the Singularity Summit on National Public Radio > this morning from about 0745 to 0800 on KQED. Does anyone have a transcript > of the show, or a recording on YouTube? It was reasonably well done, in > that the ideas were not treated as futuristic sci-fi but rather as just a > little outside mainstream thinking. They spent a lot of time on irrelevant > matter having nothing to do with AI, such as Gary Kasparov's contest with > Deep Blue and battle bots, but this could be expected in any singularity > story made for public consumption. > J Hughes just posted a note to the WTA list. Sounds like it might be the show that you heard. ------------------------------ Hughes, James J. to WTA Rick Kleffel interviewed IEETers Jamais Cascio and James Hughes at the Singularity Summit in San Francisco back in September. The piece ran on NPR's Weekend edition this morning as "Artificial Intelligence Enters Brave New World." (MP3) ------------------- BillK From neptune at superlink.net Sun Dec 2 20:55:47 2007 From: neptune at superlink.net (Technotranscendence) Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2007 15:55:47 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Fermi Paradox - Weighted Summary Message-ID: <002601c83525$b77ddbc0$e7893cd1@pavilion> On Saturday, December 01, 2007 8:46 PM Dennis May dennislmay at yahoo.com wrote: It is my view that the Fermi Paradox as expressed in Fermi's question "Where is everybody?" actually consists of 3 separate questions: 1a. How old is the universe? 2a. How commonly [time and spatial density] do technological civilizations evolve, how long do they last, and how far do they and their signals/evidence spread before becoming extinct or indistinguishable from background noise. 3a. Why don't we have open evidence that any such civilizations that might exist within our range? The fact that we do not have unambiguous proof that any alien life exists comes down to two possibilities: 1b. Such life does not (yet) exist. 2b. We have not (yet) found it. If possibility 2 is the case there are two possibilities: 1c. There are no advanced alien civilizations (yet). 2c. We have not (yet) found them. If possibility 2 is the case we have four possibilities: 1d. The density is so small we will never find them before we go extinct. 2d. The density is small and they will be difficult to find. 3d. The density is not small but they will still be difficult to find. 4d. They are not that difficult to find - we have not given it enough time/correct effort and/or there has been successful interference with that effort. Some commentary first: Question 1a: The consensus of the moment is that the observable universe is 13.7 +/- 0.2 billions years old. I say consensus of the moment because during my life time the estimated Big Bang age has varied from less than 9 billion years to over 20 billions years from one time to another. That doesn't even count the time when there was an even division between supporters of a Steady State universe and the Big Bang. Even in the last year and a half there has been suggestions that brightness observations of standard candles can put the the Hubble constant off by as much as 15% [15.8 billion year old Big Bang] and lately [last couple weeks] the matter and dark matter numbers are estimated to be off as much as 10-20%. Not to mention the many other issues with the Big Bang hypothesis. The clustering of galaxies and voids puts a Plasma Theory universe age a minimum of 20X larger than a Big Bang universe age. I have my own competing theory with the universe being infinite in age. Depending on the results of question (2a) an old universe may or may not be that significant to the question of the Fermi Paradox. Question 2a: This question is the primary thrust of most of the current debate related to the Fermi Paradox. There are hundreds of variables and many interesting views as well as some very poorly conceived ideas. It would take another book like "Where is Everybody?" to comment on all the ideas The book is only five years old but some of the information is already out of date. Finally here is a summary of my views. There isn't a single answer to the Fermi Paradox but rather a combination of factors leading to no open evidence of alien civilizations. Rather than a single explanation we should be looking at a consistent set of views leading to a high probability of no observation. Due to the subject matter opinions vary widely - I would expect little agreement about such a list. Fermi Paradox - Weighted Summary - Totaling 100% 1. Alien Military Strategy: Weight: 50% The more complex and advanced the civilization the less likely it is they will engage in risky behavior - or they will not last to become complex and advanced civilizations. We see evidence of this in the behavior of individuals who live long lives, we see it in the risky behavior of animals with large numbers and short lives versus those with longer lives and small numbers, and we see it in civilizations whose fate has turned on risky behavior. Though Star Trek makes for entertaining theater the idea of contacting [much less engaging in fist fights with] even one alien civilization is extremely high risk behavior - much less contacting new ones often. In the folklore of Star Trek they should have caused the annihilation of all Earth life many dozens or hundreds of times over. I see almost zero chance that an old advanced civilization would engage in such behavior or they would not be old and advanced - they would be extinct. It has been understood since at least the late 1980s' that advanced military communication and radar would resemble wide band white noise at low power levels and be burst/impulse rather continuous broadcasts. The book "Where is Everybody" has sources from 1994 and 1999 - but it was known elsewhere prior to that. Impulse black-body white noise is the communication method of advanced civilizations [or something even more stealth] - something we will not detect. Of course this solution has implications concerning the place of individuals in advanced civilizations having military concerns magnitudes in advance of our own. The New York Times giving away secrets to the enemy on the front page would hardly be tolerated - tolerance for such behavior is historically unprecedented - eventually it is suicidal. I don't believe hippie protesters or whiskey drunk teenage aliens are going to leak out information about their civilization or do a drive by as we expect would happen if we suddenly had warp-drive on Earth. Those civilization which do permit it exist for short times at high risk. Our human experience with civilizations indicates that contact with new civilizations is dangerous and sometimes fatal. This was true before advanced weapons and true within a single species. It is not clear what happened to several of our hominid cousins along the way but I'm sure two hominid species occupying a common area was a problem. It is clear that humans have had little tolerance for animals that preyed on humans for food. Alien species might have many things to offer but they might also cause death and destruction. Every contact could be a species fatal crap shoot. 2. Advanced Alien Civilizations are Rare: Weight: 25% Though I believe primitive life in the universe to be extremely common - increasing complexity requires stability and a favorable environment on timescales not likely to be found many places. Even when complex multi-cellular life evolves it is not obvious that much of it will evolve past the levels seen for a hundred million years on Earth. Even when human levels of intelligence are achieved we see human history did not produced a technological civilization for a very long time with some set backs lasting hundreds or thousands of years. In our recent past many events could have set humans back long periods of time - on the other hand there have been many lost opportunities where we could have advanced more quickly and been ahead of where we are now. In the world today vast numbers of people support primitivism which would set humanity back again if enacted. We are not in space in any significant way - with our level of technology we have only been in the game for a single human lifetime. Besides the environmental and biological challenges - the cultural challenges to becoming an advanced civilization likely means they are rare. 3. Recent Technological Civilizations Would be Rare and Hard to Find: 15% If any recent technological civilizations appears and are broadcasting it is unlikely we would receive their signal. If they are recent it is also unlikely they will be close or have visited. The power required is overwhelming unless you broadcast in a narrow frequency range in a pencil beam - steered in a single direction. Such broadcasts are extremely hard to find unless you know where to look - in both direction and frequency - and you have to hope it stays on target for some time to confirm its origin. With our current technology such signals would have to be purposeful and have to happen to be directed at us. The chances increase with greater receiving capabilities and more investment. We might get lucky but I place the chances at less than 1-2% of intercepting purposeful signals any time soon. Most alien civilizations will not engage in this behavior for long - nor will we. 4. Earthly Military Issues: 5% Given that the military controls [directly or indirectly] much of the high technology on Earth - from my experience I would expect that any evidence which can be controlled from entering the public domain will be prevented from doing so. There are opportunities for evidence to enter the public domain but there are many more opportunities for the military to intercept and/or discredit such public disclosures should they happen. Disinformation is a strong military tactic - to be used both for and against such evidence depending on the circumstance. It is not obvious that any proof that can be controlled will ever see the light of day. Advanced military groups divest themselves of their greatest advantage any time they let technical information slip out that could have military application. It is assumed that all alien information could have military implications. 5. Individuals Have the Evidence: 3% Some years ago I concluded that depending on the circumstances evidence of alien civilization might be best kept secret in private collections. Collectors of other objects of lesser value have made such conclusions in the past. Many items of value lay hidden in private collections - in several important cases that is all that preserved them from being lost forever [dispersal of the Vatican Library]. Public collections of anything important can become a political target at some point [Library at Alexandria]. 6. Already Publicly Have the Evidence and Don't Know it: 2% History is full of examples where the evidence of something is clear in hindsight. The evidence may already exist in multiple forms and simply not be understood in the proper context. In the future I suspect any long term successful technological human descendants will employ the Superstealth tactic [Stealth, Nomadic, Dispersed (SND)] in order to dull the effectiveness of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WoMD) in space. There is certainly no harm in listening for alien signals as long as it does not involve giving away the fact that you are listening. In a similar vein it is worth prospecting for evidence of lost alien civilizations - the ruins of which may be almost anywhere. There is no doubt we will look for life of any kind and fossils wherever we go. It is also important to look for what might be background residual evidence of technological processes. The Fermi Paradox is interesting to discuss - solutions require constant updating as technology, mathematical modeling, and the sciences evolve. Please feel free to pass this on to other groups or individuals who might be interested. Dennis May From neptune at superlink.net Sun Dec 2 21:34:52 2007 From: neptune at superlink.net (Technotranscendence) Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2007 16:34:52 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Books for the holidays? References: <200712021339.04840.kanzure@gmail.com> Message-ID: <00ca01c8352b$2d155de0$e7893cd1@pavilion> On Sunday, December 02, 2007 2:39 PM Bryan Bishop kanzure at gmail.com wrote: > Any scifi books that come highly recommended? Two by Adolfo Bioy-Casares: _The Invention of Morel_ _A Plan for Escape_ Regards, Dan From emerson at singinst.org Sun Dec 2 21:35:54 2007 From: emerson at singinst.org (Tyler Emerson) Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2007 13:35:54 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Singularity Summit Story on NPR Weekend Edition, December 2nd, 2007 Message-ID: <632d2cda0712021335h485bf23n9aca4b8db37ca68f@mail.gmail.com> NPR Weekend Edition, December 2nd, 2007 Artificial Intelligence Enters Brave New World www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=16816185 If you value this story, please use NPR's "Email this page" to share it. This will signal interest in the subject, and may increase the chance of more stories about the Singularity Institute. Stories on this subject are difficult to secure, so I would greatly appreciate your help changing this. Best, Tyler -- Tyler Emerson, Executive Director Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence P.O . Box 50182, Palo Alto, CA 94303 USA 650-353-6063 | emerson at singinst.org | singinst.org -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20071202/ac5e8e7b/attachment.html From ka.aly at luxsci.net Sun Dec 2 22:52:34 2007 From: ka.aly at luxsci.net (Khaled Aly) Date: Mon, 03 Dec 2007 00:52:34 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Computer Backups In-Reply-To: <20071130212030.GW4005@leitl.org> References: <795291.76223.qm@web31305.mail.mud.yahoo.com> <710b78fc0711292039g26bf1336y962eaf96ff2545b@mail.gmail.com> <20071130135832.RZQX9427.hrndva-omta04.mail.rr.com@natasha-39y28ni.natasha.cc> <580930c20711300723j4b872c9dldf162f96481de15d@mail.gmail.com> <20071130180116.BYL12162.hrndva-omta03.mail.rr.com@natasha-39y28ni.natasha.cc> <4750765D.5050208@luxsci.net> <20071130212030.GW4005@leitl.org> Message-ID: <47533732.4060102@luxsci.net> Your point is absolutely right. I didn't read this comment precisely at first while. I don't use gmail services and haven't read the terms of use. But I could almost definitely assume this would violate. I didn't mean to sound suggestive, although my text would read so, but meant it is an existing practical option to the masses for a limited sub-gb storage. Be it porn or junk or real legitimate private/personal data, then illegitimately stored by unidentified parties. I do prefer client-based email, and I keep wondering why http mail has not yet made it over the basic proprietary html limitation to become optionally downloadable and locally manageable by a standard client. Do you think the internet may merit just a little more attention to regulatory issues at this time? Eugen Leitl wrote: > On another list this caused a (temporary?) account suspension due > to violation of terms of use. Since gmail now offers you both > POP3 and IMAP I suggest y'all use it, if you use for more than > a sacrificial porn stash. > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20071203/a907d26e/attachment.html From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Sun Dec 2 23:06:02 2007 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Mon, 3 Dec 2007 00:06:02 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Computer Backups In-Reply-To: <47533732.4060102@luxsci.net> References: <795291.76223.qm@web31305.mail.mud.yahoo.com> <710b78fc0711292039g26bf1336y962eaf96ff2545b@mail.gmail.com> <20071130135832.RZQX9427.hrndva-omta04.mail.rr.com@natasha-39y28ni.natasha.cc> <580930c20711300723j4b872c9dldf162f96481de15d@mail.gmail.com> <20071130180116.BYL12162.hrndva-omta03.mail.rr.com@natasha-39y28ni.natasha.cc> <4750765D.5050208@luxsci.net> <20071130212030.GW4005@leitl.org> <47533732.4060102@luxsci.net> Message-ID: <580930c20712021506j2ca92cd9y7af9de8b147c39a4@mail.gmail.com> On Dec 2, 2007 11:52 PM, Khaled Aly wrote: > Your point is absolutely right. I didn't read this comment precisely at > first while. I don't use gmail services and haven't read the terms of use. > But I could almost definitely assume this would violate. > I have not checked either. Gspace is however a very public and official Firefox extension. See http://www.getgspace.com/. Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20071203/5ac6baf8/attachment.html From hibbert at mydruthers.com Sun Dec 2 23:02:16 2007 From: hibbert at mydruthers.com (Chris Hibbert) Date: Sun, 02 Dec 2007 15:02:16 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Books for the holidays? In-Reply-To: <200712021339.04840.kanzure@gmail.com> References: <200712021339.04840.kanzure@gmail.com> Message-ID: <47533978.6000903@mydruthers.com> > as other cyberpunk like C. J. Cherryh and her _Cyteen_ (but got annoyed I'm a Cherryh fan, but like John Brunner, the quality varies widely. I'm nearly done with her "Rusalka", and I may not go on to the sequels. But I've liked practically everything in the Chanur universe. Which is not to say that any of it is "A" material; it's just good entertainment. > _Diaspora_ A real winner. I've found myself referring to the orphanogenesis scene several times over the last few months. http://gregegan.customer.netspace.net.au/DIASPORA/01/Orphanogenesis.html Egan's other brilliant book is "Permutation City". The rest are fun to read, but not mind-changing. > _Neuromancer_, That was a real stunner when it came out. So much is derivative of it that it may not carry the same impact unless you can read it with a fresh mind. Some people can read old books and forget what came after, and some can't. > _Hyperion_ The first couple of books in this series were quite good, but it trailed off. > _The Book of the New Sun_ which includes: > _The Shadow of the Torturer_ > _The Claw of the Conciliator_ > _The Sword of the Lictor_ > _The Citadel of the Autarch_ > all by Gene Wolfe. Quintessential Wolfe. If you like writers who understand how to exercise the language, I strongly recommend this series. Wolfe has some other really good books and series, but this is my favorite. > _The Golden Age_ > _The Phoenix Exultant_ > _The Golden Transcendence_ > all by John C. Wright Counter-recommended if you ask me. > And maybe it is time that I purchase a copy of _Accelerando_, This was a lot of fun, as much for all the inside references as for the story. Stross really understands the future we're talking about and how quickly it will arrive. > _A Fire Upon the Deep_ and a paper back copy of _A Deepness in the Sky_. Vinge has written quite a few winners, and I thought this series was among them. Each book has a different set of contrasting races that explore what it means to be intelligent. Group minds, uplifted sessile "creatures", and on and on. The future tech will be less unbelievable just a short time after they were written, but that shows Vinge's clear vision, too. What a fun collection to look forward to! Chris -- C. J. Cherryh, "Invader", on why we visit very old buildings: "A sense of age, of profound truths. Respect for something hands made, that's stood through storms and wars and time. It persuades us that things we do may last and matter." Chris Hibbert hibbert at mydruthers.com Blog: http://pancrit.org From emerson at singinst.org Mon Dec 3 02:36:13 2007 From: emerson at singinst.org (Tyler Emerson) Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2007 18:36:13 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Your SIAI FAQ Suggestions? Message-ID: <632d2cda0712021836n2b88e123va5ba86ecc688f86@mail.gmail.com> What commonly-asked questions do you think the Singularity Institute should answer in a FAQ? Please send over your suggestions. Email me one, 10, or even 100, but make sure they're questions you think are common. Send suggestions to emerson at singinst.org. Drew Reynolds, creator of the valuable Accelerating Future Database (acceleratingfuture.com/people/), will oversee this project with SIAI team. No promises, but in addition to text, we hope to create FAQ-audio/video to share through blogs, Facebook, YouTube, etc. If one of your questions is used, we'll list you as a contributor and link to your blog/site (let us know if you want anonymity). Thanks! -- Tyler Emerson, Executive Director Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence P.O . Box 50182, Palo Alto, CA 94303 USA 650-353-6063 | emerson at singinst.org | singinst.org From msd001 at gmail.com Mon Dec 3 03:36:47 2007 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2007 22:36:47 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Fermi Paradox - Weighted Summary In-Reply-To: <002601c83525$b77ddbc0$e7893cd1@pavilion> References: <002601c83525$b77ddbc0$e7893cd1@pavilion> Message-ID: <62c14240712021936j17f6e0fdv81865259e79f65ed@mail.gmail.com> On Dec 2, 2007 3:55 PM, Technotranscendence wrote: > On Saturday, December 01, 2007 8:46 PM Dennis May dennislmay at yahoo.com > wrote: > It is my view that the Fermi Paradox as expressed in Fermi's question > "Where is everybody?" actually consists of 3 separate questions: > The Fermi Paradox is interesting to discuss - solutions require constant > updating as technology, mathematical modeling, and the sciences evolve. I recently made a comment on this (comment #2 "MikeD") http://www.blog.speculist.com/archives/001568.html#comments From pjmanney at gmail.com Mon Dec 3 03:47:27 2007 From: pjmanney at gmail.com (PJ Manney) Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2007 19:47:27 -0800 Subject: [ExI] PJ on future stuff on Fast Forward Radio Message-ID: <29666bf30712021947o42d885d0o38434983ab3b8748@mail.gmail.com> I know this is late notice, but... While I was up at the Foresight Unconference, I met Phil Bowermaster of "The Speculist" blog, who is interviewing me tonight at 8 pm on his Fast-Forward Radio podcast. My segment's from 8:15 - 8:45 pm. We'll start out talking about empathy and technology and see where it goes from there. I've never been interviewed before, so if anyone wants to hear me make newbie mistakes, or ask questions, now's your chance! :) http://www.blog.speculist.com/archives/001527.html PJ From spike66 at att.net Mon Dec 3 05:44:09 2007 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2007 21:44:09 -0800 Subject: [ExI] singularity summit on kqed In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <200712030610.lB36ApEt012683@andromeda.ziaspace.com> > bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK > Subject: Re: [ExI] singularity summit on kqed > > On Dec 2, 2007 4:43 PM, spike wrote: > > > > There was a commentary on the Singularity Summit on National Public > Radio > > this morning from about 0745 to 0800 on KQED. Does anyone have a > transcript > > of the show, or a recording on YouTube?... > > > J Hughes just posted a note to the WTA list. > Sounds like it might be the show that you heard. > > ------------------------------ > > Hughes, James J. to WTA > > > > (MP3) > > BillK Thanks BillK, ja that is it. After I reviewed it, I was disappointed in a few things. They didn't really give an adequate overview of the singularity notion, rather some vague descriptions of general AI, and didn't even mention Eliezer which seems cold being as the conference was organized by SIAI. spike From neptune at superlink.net Mon Dec 3 12:33:36 2007 From: neptune at superlink.net (Technotranscendence) Date: Mon, 3 Dec 2007 07:33:36 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Fermi Paradox - Weighted Summary Message-ID: <006a01c835a8$ba3e92e0$9b893cd1@pavilion> Just passing this along from the Yahoo group, [How to build a Space Habitat] Regards, Dan On Sunday, December 02, 2007 11:33 PM Dennis May dennislmay at yahoo.com wrote: Big voids are easy to explain in theories other than the Big Bang. All you need is an old universe and the voids, walls, long filaments, and clusters are easy to understand. No reason to assume parallel universes or ETI engineering. Dennis From: "Mike Dougherty" msd001 at gmail.com To: "ExI chat list" extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org Sent: Sunday, December 02, 2007 10:36 PM Subject: Re: [ExI] Fermi Paradox - Weighted Summary > On Dec 2, 2007 3:55 PM, Technotranscendence wrote: > > On Saturday, December 01, 2007 8:46 PM Dennis May dennislmay at yahoo.com > > wrote: > > It is my view that the Fermi Paradox as expressed in Fermi's question > > "Where is everybody?" actually consists of 3 separate questions: > > > The Fermi Paradox is interesting to discuss - solutions require constant > > updating as technology, mathematical modeling, and the sciences evolve. > > I recently made a comment on this (comment #2 "MikeD") > http://www.blog.speculist.com/archives/001568.html#comments > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From hkhenson at rogers.com Mon Dec 3 13:12:09 2007 From: hkhenson at rogers.com (hkhenson) Date: Mon, 03 Dec 2007 06:12:09 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Watson echo. In-Reply-To: <47533978.6000903@mydruthers.com> References: <200712021339.04840.kanzure@gmail.com> <47533978.6000903@mydruthers.com> Message-ID: <1196687516_1283@S1.cableone.net> You might find this interesting. http://www.slate.com/id/2178122/entry/2178123/ Not long ago I was at a conference of about 200 people. It was the kind of conference Extropians would be comfortable at. Inadvertently it comprised an example of what Watson got attacked for. One ethnic classification was considerably over represented compared to their numbers in the population and another classification was under represented, consisting of only a single individual. That's about what you would expect from a selection process that is blind on this axis, but highly discriminatory on another axis. Sorry to be vague about the conference and details. Keith PS. There is an addendum apologizing for referencing Philip Rushton. From hkhenson at rogers.com Mon Dec 3 15:41:54 2007 From: hkhenson at rogers.com (hkhenson) Date: Mon, 03 Dec 2007 08:41:54 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Watson echo. In-Reply-To: <1196687516_1283@S1.cableone.net> References: <200712021339.04840.kanzure@gmail.com> <47533978.6000903@mydruthers.com> <1196687516_1283@S1.cableone.net> Message-ID: <1196696495_4268@S4.cableone.net> At 06:12 AM 12/3/2007, you wrote: >You might find this >interesting. >http://www.slate.com/id/2178122/entry/2178123/ Correction. http://www.slate.com/id/2178122/entry/2178123/ Keith From amara at amara.com Mon Dec 3 16:04:38 2007 From: amara at amara.com (Amara Graps) Date: Mon, 3 Dec 2007 09:04:38 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fermi Paradox - Weighted Summary Message-ID: This old-ish conversation might interest people too: Further Away from the Lamppost http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/05/24/further-away-from-the-lamp-post Amara -- Amara Graps, PhD www.amara.com Research Scientist, Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), Boulder, Colorado From pjmanney at gmail.com Mon Dec 3 20:53:44 2007 From: pjmanney at gmail.com (PJ Manney) Date: Mon, 3 Dec 2007 12:53:44 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Forbes: How to Spy on People Message-ID: <29666bf30712031253t52d6f78avc67f8cf3d2976853@mail.gmail.com> Forget about the government and wiretapping. I've heard about a lot of this, but a couple of these babies were new to me. After reading this article, I sincerely hope you are all in happy, deceit free relationships and that none of you are doing anything nefarious. Because if you aren't, you're in for a world full of hurt. PJ In Pictures: How They're Watching You: http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2007/11/21/privacy-surveillance-technology-oped-cx_res_1126privacy_slide.html Commentary How To Spy On People James D. Zirin 11.28.07, 6:00 AM ET http://www.forbes.com/2007/11/27/zirin-cyber-spying-oped-cx_jdz_1128zirin.html?partner=weekly_newsletter "No one cares more about the things you do than the person that used to be married to you," says Jacalyn F. Barnett, a New York matrimonial lawyer. Indeed, everyone knows that the government engages in pervasive surveillance of citizens in its prosecution of the war on terror. And, it has been widely reported that Google and Microsoft accumulate personal data on Internet users as well. But, the most pervasive form of electronic surveillance nowadays comes from people you know--your boss, your business competitor, someone on a journalist's beat, and even your spouse. In Pictures: How They're Watching You Want to zero in on someone anywhere on the planet? Just call GeoEye. GeoEye is the premier provider of geospatial imagery to its commercial customers to help them better map and monitor the world. GeoEye operates a constellation of Earth imaging satellites, mapping aircraft, an international network of ground stations and advanced imagery processing capabilities. And, if that's not revealing enough, GeoEye plans to launch its next-generation Earth imaging satellite, GeoEye1, in late first quarter or early second quarter 2008. GeoEye1 will be the world's highest resolution and most accurate commercial imaging satellite with a ground resolution of about 16 inches. Just think, one could punch up Angelina Jolie and see what she's doing anywhere in the world--with the camera lens only 16 inches away. On the other hand, if you don't care what your favorite movie star is doing geospatially, but are more curious about what your wife or business rival is doing on the Internet, you can bug her computer with a program known as "Pandora" available online for $49. Pandora will send to your computer a log of everything the target is doing. Yes, e-mails, Web site visits, draft letters--right down to the last keystroke. Pandora, named for the first woman in Greek mythology whose curiosity unleashed a multitude of sins, can be physically installed in the target's computer by one with access. It seems our entire culture is enmeshed in a thicket of electronic gadgets for bugging, visual surveillance and computer monitoring, which all but put the traditional private detective out of business. The president of the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers has said that there is electronic evidence in almost every case. "It has completely changed our field." No longer the need for the high-priced gumshoe to follow someone around. Too labor intensive. Just install surreptitiously in the target's car a GPS vehicle tracking system, available on the Internet for $700, and follow her travels on your computer screen while you stay at home with your other eye, perhaps, on a football game. Is your child's nanny up to no good while you are out on the town? Follow her movements about the house with a $600 motion activated digital video camera neatly concealed in a clock, a book or an air purifier. Is your employee consulting lawyers in preparation for a multimillion-dollar lawsuit against you? Tap into his litigation strategy and discover the strengths and weaknesses of the case by intercepting office e-mail communications with his attorney. All you need do is warn the employee of an e-mail policy in place that provides, among other things, that your computers are to be used for business purposes only; that employees have no personal right of privacy in the material they send or receive through your computer systems; and that you reserve the right to access and disclose material on your system. A Manhattan judge recently ruled such communications outside the attorney/client privilege since the employee was warned that his boss was "looking over his shoulder." And if you get into litigation, almost all private information, if relevant to the lawsuit, is fair game for subpoena. Banking, brokerage and credit card records may reveal the most sensitive financial information. E-Z Pass bills may disclose clandestine journeys or secret meetings. Telephone records may tell a tale of who you know, who you talk to, how frequently and how long. If you think your life is an open book, you're right. Eavesdropping is dangerous and may even be criminal. Bernard Kerik, former New York City police commissioner under Rudy Giuliani, and Westchester County District Attorney Jeanine Pirro raised eyebrows recently over reports that he allegedly assisted her in bugging her estranged husband's boat. Hewlett Packard chairwoman Patricia Dunn was indicted after she allegedly ordered intrusive spying on board members and journalists in a hunt for who was leaking business secrets to the press. The charges against her were later dropped in the "interests of justice." The private detective involved pleaded guilty to fraud and conspiracy charges. The company settled the civil suits for a reported $14.5 million. In most states and in the federal system, anti-eavesdropping laws largely prohibit interception type surveillance such as wiretapping. There have been few reported convictions. However, federal law, as well as New York law, generally allows recording of a conversation if one of the parties to the conversation consents. Such a recording is not deemed an interception. The recording, if relevant, would probably be admissible in evidence. In California, however, such one-party recordings are deemed inadmissible. Meanwhile, the "great game" continues in cyberspace. And the names aren't changed to protect the innocent. In Pictures: How They're Watching You James D. Zirin is a trial lawyer in New York and co-host of the program Digital Age. From jonkc at att.net Mon Dec 3 21:40:02 2007 From: jonkc at att.net (John K Clark) Date: Mon, 3 Dec 2007 16:40:02 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Fermi Paradox - Weighted Summary References: <002601c83525$b77ddbc0$e7893cd1@pavilion> Message-ID: <018301c835f5$27694850$95074e0c@MyComputer> I can only see two solutions to the Fermi Paradox: 1)We are the first. 2) There is a fundamental limit on what intelligence can achieve, possibly due to war but probably because of the danger of having too much control over ones mind and entering into a positive feedback loop; in other words, electronic drug addiction. John K Clark From randall at randallsquared.com Mon Dec 3 21:41:31 2007 From: randall at randallsquared.com (Randall Randall) Date: Mon, 3 Dec 2007 16:41:31 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Forbes: How to Spy on People In-Reply-To: <29666bf30712031253t52d6f78avc67f8cf3d2976853@mail.gmail.com> References: <29666bf30712031253t52d6f78avc67f8cf3d2976853@mail.gmail.com> Message-ID: <0FC182E5-A11B-4393-9BDE-17C0F1F7EEE4@randallsquared.com> On Dec 3, 2007, at 3:53 PM, PJ Manney wrote: > > Commentary > How To Spy On People > James D. Zirin 11.28.07, 6:00 AM ET > http://www.forbes.com/2007/11/27/zirin-cyber-spying-oped- > cx_jdz_1128zirin.html?partner=weekly_newsletter [snip] > And, if that's not revealing enough, GeoEye plans to launch its > next-generation Earth imaging satellite, GeoEye1, in late first > quarter or early second quarter 2008. GeoEye1 will be the world's > highest resolution and most accurate commercial imaging satellite with > a ground resolution of about 16 inches. Just think, one could punch up > Angelina Jolie and see what she's doing anywhere in the world--with > the camera lens only 16 inches away. Hah. That's not what that means, of course. Resolution is a measure of the smallest single thing that can be seen. When I see an article that gets such a basic fact wrong, I wonder about the rest of it, too. :) -- Randall Randall "If I can do it in Alabama, then I'm fairly certain you can get away with it anywhere." -- Dresden Codak From kanzure at gmail.com Mon Dec 3 23:17:21 2007 From: kanzure at gmail.com (Bryan Bishop) Date: Mon, 3 Dec 2007 17:17:21 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Fermi Paradox - Weighted Summary In-Reply-To: <006a01c835a8$ba3e92e0$9b893cd1@pavilion> References: <006a01c835a8$ba3e92e0$9b893cd1@pavilion> Message-ID: <200712031717.21514.kanzure@gmail.com> On Monday 03 December 2007, Technotranscendence wrote: > Just passing this along from the Yahoo group, [How to build a Space > Habitat] What group in particular? I can't seem to find that one. - Bryan From msd001 at gmail.com Mon Dec 3 23:43:36 2007 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Mon, 3 Dec 2007 18:43:36 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Fermi Paradox - Weighted Summary In-Reply-To: <018301c835f5$27694850$95074e0c@MyComputer> References: <002601c83525$b77ddbc0$e7893cd1@pavilion> <018301c835f5$27694850$95074e0c@MyComputer> Message-ID: <62c14240712031543g480ed760mc0fed7b87119472f@mail.gmail.com> On Dec 3, 2007 4:40 PM, John K Clark wrote: > I can only see two solutions to the Fermi Paradox: > > 1)We are the first. > > 2) There is a fundamental limit on what intelligence can achieve, possibly > due to war but probably because of the danger of having too much control > over ones mind and entering into a positive feedback loop; > in other words, electronic drug addiction. How about: each preceeding intelligence so completely consumes the resources of the universe that the environment that remains is devoid of their signature, we eventually rise up from their unusable leftovers with some clever new mode of being and wonder why nobody is around. If we were close enough to have detected them, we would have been swept along in their Singularity wave with them. I guess this is a special condition of your scenario 1 - we are the first in the current petri dish we identify as our local space-time. I don't remember the exact quote, the idea is that Life seems pretty scarce in the whole of the universe, but where it exists on Earth it flourishes completely. (try keeping your lawn free of weeds and bugs for example) Is Life a meta-definition of a particular kind of pattern, with various seemingly unrelated instances or strains? It would help with the Fermi paradox question if "Life" or "Intelligence" were more rigorously defined, no? From lcorbin at rawbw.com Tue Dec 4 05:08:43 2007 From: lcorbin at rawbw.com (Lee Corbin) Date: Mon, 3 Dec 2007 21:08:43 -0800 Subject: [ExI] "Psychological Considerations" Message-ID: <007601c83633$c8f54b90$6401a8c0@homeef7b612677> In the favorite novel of my youth, Van Vogt's "The Mixed Men", at one point while debating strategy one character turns to another and says, "Yes, but have you considered the psychological aspects?" This detachment of such concerns from the ordinary or bottom level part of a strategy always struck me (since I've been an adult, anyway) as an interesting reflection on how much the characters---and presumably Van Vogt himself---thought that this kind of "psychology" could be abstractly formalized, and that there would be a definite planning phase in which such aspects would be addressed. Now I wonder about whether for "psychological reasons" it was a good idea to publicize cryonics in the pre-Matrix era, using my 20-30 hindsight. I suggest that just as we may view the period since 1953 as the "post-mechanical era" because it was the watershed of folks coming to see that life is mechanical, so 1998 may go down as the "post-Matrix" era because that was when Hollywood correctly gambled that its audiences were ready for virtual reality and its attendant presuppositions. It's quite conceivable to me that the great minds of coming eras might evaluate the pre-Matrix era as one in which the introduction of the cryonics meme did more harm than good. "It actually generated more antagonism of a long lasting nature than would have arisen had the cryonics meme-workers waited until 1998 when society was ready", could be one of their conclusions. On another topic, it may be that "psychological considerations" should have also dictated that intelligence estimates of Iran's bomb-making progress be suppressed at the current time, rather than publicized. For it's quite possible, especially now that we appreciate how important to Saddam Hussein had been the Middle-Eastern perception that he had or was close to having a bomb, that Iran has suffered a loss of face now not easily appreciated in the West. Now, indeed, (if the report is accurate) Iran may have to sigh and begin trying to impress their neighbors in earnest. Usually I give Western governments the benefit of doubt (many people here complain that too many of us systematically give western governments too much such benefit!) when it comes to calculating "psychological considerations". I often suppose that deep in the State Department or the Pentagon, very shrewd minds try to calculate---who knows, even abstractly!?---the the likely "psychological" reactions of other nations' leaders and the societies of other nations. Upp! Keep that mouse from hitting Reply, just a bit longer! Naturally, the results of such strategical rumination do not seem, to put it mildly, to be very much in evidence, at least not successfully so, but who knows, perhaps that's just a reflection on its immense difficulty. I mean, that *could* be the case. Lee From emlynoregan at gmail.com Tue Dec 4 06:09:17 2007 From: emlynoregan at gmail.com (Emlyn) Date: Tue, 4 Dec 2007 16:39:17 +1030 Subject: [ExI] from the other side In-Reply-To: <580930c20711300712i29fad7fare27407238745bfa6@mail.gmail.com> References: <795291.76223.qm@web31305.mail.mud.yahoo.com> <710b78fc0711292039g26bf1336y962eaf96ff2545b@mail.gmail.com> <580930c20711300511y2984054bv281a7a261ea91b64@mail.gmail.com> <20071130134011.GL4005@leitl.org> <580930c20711300712i29fad7fare27407238745bfa6@mail.gmail.com> Message-ID: <710b78fc0712032209q337c1d8ie049afbcb856a0f2@mail.gmail.com> On 01/12/2007, Stefano Vaj wrote: > On Nov 30, 2007 2:40 PM, Eugen Leitl wrote: > > On Fri, Nov 30, 2007 at 02:11:38PM +0100, Stefano Vaj wrote: > > > *Windows* PC?!! :-( > > > > You can simply use a WebDAV share (works also over SSL), > > which is supported by any system known to man. > > Thank you, even though my admittedly cryptical remark was intended to > express scandal at the fact that somebody amongst us is a Windows > user... :-) > > Stefano Vaj > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > Guilty as charged. And, in fact, it's Vista. -- Emlyn http://emlynoregan.com From eugen at leitl.org Tue Dec 4 07:48:43 2007 From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl) Date: Tue, 4 Dec 2007 08:48:43 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Fermi Paradox - Weighted Summary In-Reply-To: <018301c835f5$27694850$95074e0c@MyComputer> References: <002601c83525$b77ddbc0$e7893cd1@pavilion> <018301c835f5$27694850$95074e0c@MyComputer> Message-ID: <20071204074843.GA4005@leitl.org> On Mon, Dec 03, 2007 at 04:40:02PM -0500, John K Clark wrote: > I can only see two solutions to the Fermi Paradox: > > 1)We are the first. Yes, that's the most likely explanation by far. > 2) There is a fundamental limit on what intelligence can achieve, possibly Don't think so -- even suited monkeys and habitats are very observable, if given enough time. > due to war but probably because of the danger of having too much control > over ones mind and entering into a positive feedback loop; > in other words, electronic drug addiction. -- Eugen* Leitl leitl http://leitl.org ______________________________________________________________ ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE From eugen at leitl.org Tue Dec 4 08:03:31 2007 From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl) Date: Tue, 4 Dec 2007 09:03:31 +0100 Subject: [ExI] from the other side In-Reply-To: <710b78fc0712032209q337c1d8ie049afbcb856a0f2@mail.gmail.com> References: <795291.76223.qm@web31305.mail.mud.yahoo.com> <710b78fc0711292039g26bf1336y962eaf96ff2545b@mail.gmail.com> <580930c20711300511y2984054bv281a7a261ea91b64@mail.gmail.com> <20071130134011.GL4005@leitl.org> <580930c20711300712i29fad7fare27407238745bfa6@mail.gmail.com> <710b78fc0712032209q337c1d8ie049afbcb856a0f2@mail.gmail.com> Message-ID: <20071204080331.GB4005@leitl.org> On Tue, Dec 04, 2007 at 04:39:17PM +1030, Emlyn wrote: > Guilty as charged. And, in fact, it's Vista. How else are we supposed to get government malware, but through packet injection into unsigned system updates? -- Eugen* Leitl leitl http://leitl.org ______________________________________________________________ ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE From emlynoregan at gmail.com Tue Dec 4 09:26:27 2007 From: emlynoregan at gmail.com (Emlyn) Date: Tue, 4 Dec 2007 19:56:27 +1030 Subject: [ExI] from the other side In-Reply-To: <20071204080331.GB4005@leitl.org> References: <795291.76223.qm@web31305.mail.mud.yahoo.com> <710b78fc0711292039g26bf1336y962eaf96ff2545b@mail.gmail.com> <580930c20711300511y2984054bv281a7a261ea91b64@mail.gmail.com> <20071130134011.GL4005@leitl.org> <580930c20711300712i29fad7fare27407238745bfa6@mail.gmail.com> <710b78fc0712032209q337c1d8ie049afbcb856a0f2@mail.gmail.com> <20071204080331.GB4005@leitl.org> Message-ID: <710b78fc0712040126m60f9b5b4y3b2c27ad0a26be48@mail.gmail.com> On 04/12/2007, Eugen Leitl wrote: > On Tue, Dec 04, 2007 at 04:39:17PM +1030, Emlyn wrote: > > > Guilty as charged. And, in fact, it's Vista. > > How else are we supposed to get government malware, but through > packet injection into unsigned system updates? > With Vista, the OS/malware distinction is kinda blurry... -- Emlyn http://emlynoregan.com > -- > Eugen* Leitl leitl http://leitl.org > ______________________________________________________________ > ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org > 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Mon Dec 3 23:01:20 2007 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Mon, 3 Dec 2007 18:01:20 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Fermi Paradox - Weighted Summary In-Reply-To: <002601c83525$b77ddbc0$e7893cd1@pavilion> References: <002601c83525$b77ddbc0$e7893cd1@pavilion> Message-ID: <7641ddc60712031501v62439263o4871c0e970e50cc9@mail.gmail.com> On Dec 2, 2007 3:55 PM, Technotranscendence quoted: > > 1. Alien Military Strategy: Weight: 50% > > Our human experience with civilizations indicates that contact with new > civilizations is dangerous and sometimes fatal. ### Nah - for every fatality in an inter-civilization conflict there is a survivor as well (hard to imagine that all, or even a fraction of conflicts would result in bilateral destruction of participants). For every loser there is a winner, and a tough one, too. If we are going to meet aliens they are likely to be the winners, and especially winners with a long track history of winning. Those that are most likely to be seen will be probably expansionist, like Robin Hanson's maximum speed expanders, evolved to expand as quickly as possible....and not cower in one star system waiting to be surrounded. Rafal From seienchan at gmail.com Sun Dec 2 21:10:42 2007 From: seienchan at gmail.com (Seien) Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2007 21:10:42 +0000 Subject: [ExI] [wta-talk] Books for the holidays? In-Reply-To: <8CF6A92CB628444FB3C757618CD280390637A800@exbe1.cmpcntr.tc.trincoll.edu> References: <200712021339.04840.kanzure@gmail.com> <8CF6A92CB628444FB3C757618CD280390637A800@exbe1.cmpcntr.tc.trincoll.edu> Message-ID: <7d6322030712021310y13ec53a4q4e408dd786ae87e9@mail.gmail.com> >Just for fun, consider Philip Pullman's "His Dark Materials" series: "The Golden Compass", "The Subtle Knife" and "The Amber Spyglass". They are young-adult and quick and pleasant. Plus a bit thought provoking. Not sure how extropian they are, but they do aim at "doing away with the finality of death"... although I'm not clear >about the retention of consciousness! It seems implied but no description of how. In Britain, the first book is called "The Northern Lights". :) I'd argue that HDM are worthy less because they deal precisely with the Transhumanist aims, but more because in their entirety they promote rational and dynamic thought. They're honestly just very excellent books that promote very excellent ideas, executed skillfully. Also, I believe a lot of the many worlds concept in the second book was at least in part inspired by David Deutsch's work on Quantum Mechanics (everett's interpretation, anybody?), which can only be a good thing. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20071202/832ade94/attachment.html From citta437 at aol.com Mon Dec 3 15:39:30 2007 From: citta437 at aol.com (citta437 at aol.com) Date: Mon, 03 Dec 2007 10:39:30 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Is Evolution Random? Message-ID: <8CA03D9D463BACA-B00-2569@WEBMAIL-MB16.sysops.aol.com> ""Funda-Mentality" Is the Conscious Mind Subtly Linked to a Basic Level of the Universe? Age-old battle lines over the puzzling nature of mental experience are shaping a modern resurgence in the study of consciousness. On one side are the long-dominant "physicalists" (reductionists, materialists, functionalists, computationalists. . ) who see consciousness as an emergent property of the brain's neural networks ("brain = mind = computer"). On the alternative, rebellious side are those who see a necessary added ingredient: proto-conscious experience intrinsic to reality, perhaps understandable through modern physics (panpsychists, pan-experientialists, "funda-mentalists"). It is argued here that the physicalist premise alone is unable to solve completely the difficult issues of consciousness (e.g. experience, binding, pre-conscious conscious transition, non-computability and free will) and that to do so will require supplemental panpsychist/pan-experiential philosophy expressed in modern physics. In one such scheme proto-conscious experience is a basic property of physical reality accessible to a quantum process associated with brain activity. The proposed process is Roger Penrose's objective reduction (OR), a self-organizing "collapse" of the quantum wave function related to instability at the most basic level of spacetime geometry. In the Penrose-Hameroff model of "orchestrated objective reduction" ("Orch OR"), OR quantum computation occurs in cytoskeletal microtubules within the brain's neurons and links cognition with proto-conscious experience and Platonic values embedded in spacetime geometry. The basic idea is that consciousness involves brain activities coupled to self-organizing ripples in fundamental reality." __________________ Hi, I have no problem about the conscious mind {experience of consciousness/awareness} as a self-organizing form of energy involved in our four dimentional universe including time, a linear one directional movement from unawarenees to awareness. First there is unawareness before the so called singularity/big bang, then there is awareness in time/entropy expands. Now our universe's expansion is slowing down due to gravity/attraction between masses of matter but gravity has no effect in the atomic and molecular interactions within each brain matter. The basic energy interactions between atoms and molecules depends on the negative and positive ions which are both deterministic and random. Can our brain act both as organic and inorganic computer simulated mind alternating as conscious and unconscious processes? ________________________________________________________________________ More new features than ever. Check out the new AOL Mail ! - http://o.aolcdn.com/cdn.webmail.aol.com/mailtour/aol/en-us/text.htm?ncid=aolcmp00050000000003 From nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk Sun Dec 2 22:28:04 2007 From: nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk (Tom Nowell) Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2007 22:28:04 +0000 (GMT) Subject: [ExI] books for the holidays In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <436506.43397.qm@web27013.mail.ukl.yahoo.com> The Greg Egan choices you made are excellent choices for thinking about transhumanity and posthumanity. I would also recommend Ken McLeod's books "The Cassini Division" and "the Stone Canal". The Cassini Division is about a war between post-civilisation humans without digital technology (their computers are all micromechanical "babbages") and the posthumans who've uploaded themselves and now live inside Jupiter. Ken McLeod's other books (apart from the "engines of light" trilogy) deal with a future vision where civilisation breaks apart, leading to a sort of post-civilised state. While not strictly transhuman, it's thought-provoking about the future state of humanity. ___________________________________________________________ Support the World Aids Awareness campaign this month with Yahoo! For Good http://uk.promotions.yahoo.com/forgood/ From nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk Sun Dec 2 22:38:00 2007 From: nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk (Tom Nowell) Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2007 22:38:00 +0000 (GMT) Subject: [ExI] Petitioning the British Prime Minister In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <88933.46422.qm@web27011.mail.ukl.yahoo.com> Hi folks, I decided to try and embrace the new world of digital democracy and set up an e-petition. In Britain, the latest gimmick from our government is the "petition the Prime minister" website, where if you can get a couple of hundred british citizens or residents to sign their name to an e-petition, you will get an official response from a government spokesperson. As Britain has a sixty-year history of heavily socialised medicine, and one of the big moral issues facing transhumanism is around access to future genetic technologies, I decided to grab the bull by the horns and set up a petition demanding that Britain's healthcare service provides equal access to genetic treatments eg for parkinsons and for future babies, when such technologies are proved safe. You can see the wording on the following link: http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/geneticequality/ Now, as you can see my current attempts to advertise the petition have failed dismally. I've tried a couple of general science forums, and no-one's paid any attention. Can you think of good places for me to get the message out to the good people of Britain? At heart, even if all I get is the official government response "the healthcare budget won't stretch that far" or "we don't include details of technologies more than five years in the future in government planning", I'll be happy just to have the response. Thanks for reading, Tom ___________________________________________________________ Support the World Aids Awareness campaign this month with Yahoo! For Good http://uk.promotions.yahoo.com/forgood/ From Claus.Bornich at autocue.co.uk Tue Dec 4 10:05:04 2007 From: Claus.Bornich at autocue.co.uk (Claus Bornich) Date: Tue, 4 Dec 2007 10:05:04 -0000 Subject: [ExI] Books for the holidays? In-Reply-To: Message-ID: Just came back from a long weekend to Paris, where I read Permutation City between conferences, exploring and cr?pes. A very good read, truly an epic story in what seems to be the Greg Egan style, vast in time, space and concept. Written some three years earlier than Diaspora it was not quite as mind-bendingly breathtaking, but still light years ahead of much of the sf penned into existence. Reading Greg Egan is inspiring, but as much as I'd like to I'll not go into detail, lest I diminish the delight of discovery. Which one should I read next? As for Vernor Vinge I would recommend reading A Deepness in the Sky first, the prequel to A Fire Upon the Deep. And don't forget The Peace War if you haven't already read it and if you enjoyed that, possibly Marooned in Realtime. Currently, I'm re-reading Accelerando. When originally published as novellas in Asimov's it was perfectly in sync with my unfolding understanding of such wonderful ideas as transhumanism, extropy, the singularity, open source and daily scouring of slashdot for the latest techno news. Funny and densely packed with ideas, rocketing you straight into a weird and wonderful singularity. It permanently imprinted the name Charles Stross in my memory, and I've since read Toast, Singularity Sky and can't wait to explore Iron Sunrise and Glasshouse. Never did read the last three parts of Accelerando, so I'm hoping it ends with the same energy and vision it started out with. Got most of the books you mention lined up on my bookshelf and I'd strongly recommend the Golden Age too. I've yet to read the Golden Transcendence though, maybe this x-mas... I don't think it matters if His Dark Materials is extropian or not, it's such a nice and intelligent trilogy. Perfect for x-mas, both for your own pleasure and wrapped up for young and old minds alike. Never heard of Thirteen by Richard Morgan, so I'll add that to my list and I'll be watching for more tips showing up in this thread (I'm reading the digest version so I might be a bit out of sync). Happy Holiday Reading Claus From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Tue Dec 4 10:38:54 2007 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Tue, 4 Dec 2007 11:38:54 +0100 Subject: [ExI] [wta-talk] Books for the holidays? In-Reply-To: <7d6322030712021310y13ec53a4q4e408dd786ae87e9@mail.gmail.com> References: <200712021339.04840.kanzure@gmail.com> <8CF6A92CB628444FB3C757618CD280390637A800@exbe1.cmpcntr.tc.trincoll.edu> <7d6322030712021310y13ec53a4q4e408dd786ae87e9@mail.gmail.com> Message-ID: <580930c20712040238l34b21714vdf191e181f30b20f@mail.gmail.com> On Dec 2, 2007 10:10 PM, Seien wrote: > In Britain, the first book is called "The Northern Lights". :) > Should we assume that it is also translated in British English? :-) Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20071204/40edf675/attachment.html From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Tue Dec 4 10:46:41 2007 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Tue, 4 Dec 2007 11:46:41 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Books for the holidays? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <580930c20712040246w794f6aeev2a66dcd41f946f43@mail.gmail.com> On Dec 4, 2007 11:05 AM, Claus Bornich wrote: > > Just came back from a long weekend to Paris, where I read Permutation City > between conferences, exploring and cr?pes. A very good read, truly an epic > story in what seems to be the Greg Egan style, vast in time, space and > concept. Written some three years earlier than Diaspora it was not quite as > mind-bendingly breathtaking, but still light years ahead of much of the sf > penned into existence. > I must say that Egan is IMHO the H+ SF writer by definition. Not always much ideology in his works, and some science is of course quite distorted or simplified or invented for fictional purposed, but the scenarios include almost everything which has been pondered by the average transhumanist in recent years, and more. See also Luminous, Quarantine and above all the most radically posthuman story, Schild's Ladder. Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20071204/2625a49c/attachment.html From stathisp at gmail.com Tue Dec 4 10:48:21 2007 From: stathisp at gmail.com (Stathis Papaioannou) Date: Tue, 4 Dec 2007 21:48:21 +1100 Subject: [ExI] Fermi Paradox - Weighted Summary In-Reply-To: <018301c835f5$27694850$95074e0c@MyComputer> References: <002601c83525$b77ddbc0$e7893cd1@pavilion> <018301c835f5$27694850$95074e0c@MyComputer> Message-ID: On 04/12/2007, John K Clark wrote: > 2) There is a fundamental limit on what intelligence can achieve, possibly > due to war but probably because of the danger of having too much control > over ones mind and entering into a positive feedback loop; > in other words, electronic drug addiction. If anything, drug addiction occurs in our culture due to having too little control over one's mind. Some drug addicts wish they had never been tempted to use the drug in the first place, and most drug addicts wish they could easily switch off their addiction, or that there was something else they could do that was as least as enjoyable as the drug but more productive. If they had complete control over their minds, it would be a simple matter to arrange for these things to be the case. If you thought that the denial of all pleasures was important, you could simply make yourself content to deny yourself all pleasures. This would involve making pleasure-denial more pleasant than the anticipation of pleasure indulgence. -- Stathis Papaioannou From stathisp at gmail.com Tue Dec 4 11:03:37 2007 From: stathisp at gmail.com (Stathis Papaioannou) Date: Tue, 4 Dec 2007 22:03:37 +1100 Subject: [ExI] Petitioning the British Prime Minister In-Reply-To: <88933.46422.qm@web27011.mail.ukl.yahoo.com> References: <88933.46422.qm@web27011.mail.ukl.yahoo.com> Message-ID: On 03/12/2007, Tom Nowell wrote: > As Britain has a sixty-year history of heavily > socialised medicine, and one of the big moral issues > facing transhumanism is around access to future > genetic technologies, I decided to grab the bull by > the horns and set up a petition demanding that > Britain's healthcare service provides equal access to > genetic treatments eg for parkinsons and for future > babies, when such technologies are proved safe. Why do you assume that the healthcare system won't use such technologies? History suggests that every medical technology that works eventually is used. Very expensive treatments are sometimes justified on political grounds, but more often they are justified on the grounds that they will decrease overall expenditure by, for example, reducing costs associated with hospitalisation of the chronically ill. (Killing the chronically ill would be cheaper still, but fortunately that's politically unacceptable, even for the worst dictatorships). -- Stathis Papaioannou From stathisp at gmail.com Tue Dec 4 11:03:37 2007 From: stathisp at gmail.com (Stathis Papaioannou) Date: Tue, 4 Dec 2007 22:03:37 +1100 Subject: [ExI] Petitioning the British Prime Minister In-Reply-To: <88933.46422.qm@web27011.mail.ukl.yahoo.com> References: <88933.46422.qm@web27011.mail.ukl.yahoo.com> Message-ID: On 03/12/2007, Tom Nowell wrote: > As Britain has a sixty-year history of heavily > socialised medicine, and one of the big moral issues > facing transhumanism is around access to future > genetic technologies, I decided to grab the bull by > the horns and set up a petition demanding that > Britain's healthcare service provides equal access to > genetic treatments eg for parkinsons and for future > babies, when such technologies are proved safe. Why do you assume that the healthcare system won't use such technologies? History suggests that every medical technology that works eventually is used. Very expensive treatments are sometimes justified on political grounds, but more often they are justified on the grounds that they will decrease overall expenditure by, for example, reducing costs associated with hospitalisation of the chronically ill. (Killing the chronically ill would be cheaper still, but fortunately that's politically unacceptable, even for the worst dictatorships). -- Stathis Papaioannou From kanzure at gmail.com Tue Dec 4 12:16:58 2007 From: kanzure at gmail.com (Bryan Bishop) Date: Tue, 4 Dec 2007 06:16:58 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Is Evolution Random? In-Reply-To: <8CA03D9D463BACA-B00-2569@WEBMAIL-MB16.sysops.aol.com> References: <8CA03D9D463BACA-B00-2569@WEBMAIL-MB16.sysops.aol.com> Message-ID: <200712040616.58892.kanzure@gmail.com> On Monday 03 December 2007, citta437 at aol.com wrote: > The basic energy interactions between atoms and molecules depends on > the negative and positive ions which are both deterministic and > random. Not entirely random, see statistical mechanics. - Bryan From george at betterhumans.com Tue Dec 4 15:48:21 2007 From: george at betterhumans.com (George Dvorsky) Date: Tue, 4 Dec 2007 10:48:21 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Peter Houghton, world's first permanent artificial heart patient, has died Message-ID: Sad news: Our friend Peter Houghton has died at the age of 68. http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5i93XoFH-SXFJ_KVjEJRF8zWqF0Gw From mbb386 at main.nc.us Tue Dec 4 16:17:33 2007 From: mbb386 at main.nc.us (MB) Date: Tue, 4 Dec 2007 11:17:33 -0500 (EST) Subject: [ExI] [wta-talk] Books for the holidays? In-Reply-To: <580930c20712040238l34b21714vdf191e181f30b20f@mail.gmail.com> References: <200712021339.04840.kanzure@gmail.com> <8CF6A92CB628444FB3C757618CD280390637A800@exbe1.cmpcntr.tc.trincoll.edu> <7d6322030712021310y13ec53a4q4e408dd786ae87e9@mail.gmail.com> <580930c20712040238l34b21714vdf191e181f30b20f@mail.gmail.com> Message-ID: <33325.72.236.103.45.1196785053.squirrel@www.main.nc.us> > On Dec 2, 2007 10:10 PM, Seien wrote: > >> In Britain, the first book is called "The Northern Lights". :) >> > > Should we assume that it is also translated in British English? :-) > IIUC, the author *is* British. :) Regards, MB From hkhenson at rogers.com Tue Dec 4 16:01:49 2007 From: hkhenson at rogers.com (hkhenson) Date: Tue, 04 Dec 2007 09:01:49 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fermi Paradox - Weighted Summary In-Reply-To: References: <002601c83525$b77ddbc0$e7893cd1@pavilion> <018301c835f5$27694850$95074e0c@MyComputer> Message-ID: <1196784090_2656@S3.cableone.net> At 03:48 AM 12/4/2007, you wrote: >On 04/12/2007, John K Clark wrote: > > > 2) There is a fundamental limit on what intelligence can achieve, possibly > > due to war but probably because of the danger of having too much control > > over ones mind and entering into a positive feedback loop; > > in other words, electronic drug addiction. It's more subtile than just drug-like addiction. Consider Second Life. >If anything, drug addiction occurs in our culture due to having too >little control over one's mind. Some drug addicts wish they had never >been tempted to use the drug in the first place, and most drug addicts >wish they could easily switch off their addiction, or that there was >something else they could do that was as least as enjoyable as the >drug but more productive. If they had complete control over their >minds, it would be a simple matter to arrange for these things to be >the case. If you thought that the denial of all pleasures was >important, you could simply make yourself content to deny yourself all >pleasures. This would involve making pleasure-denial more pleasant >than the anticipation of pleasure indulgence. If you put sex drugs cults in Google and take the first link, you can see what I wrote about the origin of drug addiction some 5 years ago. Be glad to discuss it in depth. Keith From eugen at leitl.org Tue Dec 4 16:55:12 2007 From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl) Date: Tue, 4 Dec 2007 17:55:12 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Fermi Paradox - Weighted Summary In-Reply-To: <1196784090_2656@S3.cableone.net> References: <002601c83525$b77ddbc0$e7893cd1@pavilion> <018301c835f5$27694850$95074e0c@MyComputer> <1196784090_2656@S3.cableone.net> Message-ID: <20071204165512.GR4005@leitl.org> On Tue, Dec 04, 2007 at 09:01:49AM -0700, hkhenson wrote: > It's more subtile than just drug-like addiction. Consider Second Life. Computation takes atoms and Joules. Evolution favors self-replicating systems. If anything, circumstellar server clouds are much more visible than planetary surface-contaminating biofilm. P.S. 6DOF now works in SL, albeit with a hack: http://www.google.com/search?q=spacenavigator+second+life -- Eugen* Leitl leitl http://leitl.org ______________________________________________________________ ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE From desertpaths2003 at yahoo.com Tue Dec 4 17:48:49 2007 From: desertpaths2003 at yahoo.com (John) Date: Tue, 4 Dec 2007 09:48:49 -0800 (PST) Subject: [ExI] fermi paradox- weighted summary Message-ID: <700872.95299.qm@web35605.mail.mud.yahoo.com> i apologize in advance for my non-blackberry internet cell phone connection which does not format well here. why must we think that intelligent alien races would either self -destruct from civil war or if not that, give up expansionism to become virtual lotus eaters? Lol The great powers out there may frown on macro-engineering projects as being a scar on the natural beauty of the universe and that is why we don't see it. Or they may have technology so advanced that they simply do not need dyson sphere sized solar collectors, etc.. Perhaps they have gone post-singularity and have bored into other planes of existance so young races like ours have room to develop. They may be cosmic ecologists at heart. I believe intelligent alien life is out there and may even be aware of us and have our location marked down on their maps as being off limits for now. Humanity may be voracious in its appetite to devour and reshape nature but that may not be the case out there. I suspect for ages to come sentients will find it amusing that we dared to think humanity could be alone in such a vast universe. John grigg ____________________________________________________________________________________ Be a better pen pal. Text or chat with friends inside Yahoo! Mail. See how. http://overview.mail.yahoo.com/ From seienchan at gmail.com Wed Dec 5 02:59:43 2007 From: seienchan at gmail.com (Seien) Date: Wed, 5 Dec 2007 02:59:43 +0000 Subject: [ExI] fermi paradox- weighted summary In-Reply-To: <700872.95299.qm@web35605.mail.mud.yahoo.com> References: <700872.95299.qm@web35605.mail.mud.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <7d6322030712041859g67b83e1fl8492592d34753489@mail.gmail.com> On 04/12/2007, John wrote: > > i apologize in advance for my non-blackberry internet cell phone > connection which does not format well here. why must we think that > intelligent alien races would either self -destruct from civil war or if not > that, give up expansionism to become virtual lotus eaters? Lol The great > powers out there may frown on macro-engineering projects as being a scar on > the natural beauty of the universe and that is why we don't see it. Or they > may have technology so advanced that they simply do not need dyson sphere > sized solar collectors, etc.. Perhaps they have gone post-singularity and > have bored into other planes of existance so young races like ours have room > to develop. They may be cosmic ecologists at heart. I believe intelligent > alien life is out there and may even be aware of us and have our location > marked down on their maps as being off limits for now. Humanity may be > voracious in its appetite to devour and reshape nature but that may not be > the > case out there. I suspect for ages to come sentients will find it amusing > that we dared to think humanity could be alone in such a vast > universe. John grigg What is your reason for believing this? All I see is a typical vein of anti-human insinuations running through an otherwise entirely speculative assertion. -- ~Seien -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20071205/8ef9c280/attachment.html From extropy at unreasonable.com Wed Dec 5 02:32:42 2007 From: extropy at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Tue, 04 Dec 2007 21:32:42 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Robert Bussard Message-ID: <200712050232.lB52WPj61257@unreasonable.com> Robert Bussard died October 6. -- David. From lcorbin at rawbw.com Wed Dec 5 06:21:37 2007 From: lcorbin at rawbw.com (Lee Corbin) Date: Tue, 4 Dec 2007 22:21:37 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Foregoing Pleasure References: <002601c83525$b77ddbc0$e7893cd1@pavilion><018301c835f5$27694850$95074e0c@MyComputer> Message-ID: <00f701c83707$4abd5540$6401a8c0@homeef7b612677> Stathis writes > If anything, drug addiction occurs in our culture due to having too > little control over one's mind. Some drug addicts wish they had never > been tempted to use the drug in the first place, Hmm, but some are all right with it---or is it that they just don't fantasize? Some have no regrets at all? > and most drug addicts > wish they could easily switch off their addiction, or that there was > something else they could do that was as least as enjoyable as the > drug but more productive. If they had complete control over their > minds, it would be a simple matter to arrange for these things to be > the case. Yes. > If you thought that the denial of all pleasures was > important, you could simply make yourself content to deny yourself all > pleasures. Yes. > This would involve making pleasure-denial more pleasant > than the anticipation of pleasure indulgence. That sounds distinctly odd. When I deny myself the possibility of pigging out on a large bag of junk food, I would not call my resultant state more "pleasant". I just sigh and reconcile myself to having foregone a certain pleasure. Also, experiencing fear of consequences, which keeps, say, some men from immediately raping any nearby female, also does not seem to qualify for "pleasant" in any way. Lee From seienchan at gmail.com Wed Dec 5 09:23:50 2007 From: seienchan at gmail.com (Seien) Date: Wed, 5 Dec 2007 09:23:50 +0000 Subject: [ExI] [wta-talk] Books for the holidays? In-Reply-To: <33325.72.236.103.45.1196785053.squirrel@www.main.nc.us> References: <200712021339.04840.kanzure@gmail.com> <8CF6A92CB628444FB3C757618CD280390637A800@exbe1.cmpcntr.tc.trincoll.edu> <7d6322030712021310y13ec53a4q4e408dd786ae87e9@mail.gmail.com> <580930c20712040238l34b21714vdf191e181f30b20f@mail.gmail.com> <33325.72.236.103.45.1196785053.squirrel@www.main.nc.us> Message-ID: <7d6322030712050123x60405fbx337d8996e66953a4@mail.gmail.com> > > > Should we assume that it is also translated in British English? :-) > > > > IIUC, the author *is* British. :) yeah, Philip Pullman lives in Oxford. Also, of course, books by Neal Stephenson. Snow Crash in my opinion was by far the best, but he also wrote The Diamond Age and Cryptonomicon. Very Transhumanist, anarcho-capitalistic books. Snow Crash is wonderfully anti-religious. -- ~Seien -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20071205/45d3738a/attachment.html From stathisp at gmail.com Wed Dec 5 11:28:46 2007 From: stathisp at gmail.com (Stathis Papaioannou) Date: Wed, 5 Dec 2007 22:28:46 +1100 Subject: [ExI] Foregoing Pleasure In-Reply-To: <00f701c83707$4abd5540$6401a8c0@homeef7b612677> References: <002601c83525$b77ddbc0$e7893cd1@pavilion> <018301c835f5$27694850$95074e0c@MyComputer> <00f701c83707$4abd5540$6401a8c0@homeef7b612677> Message-ID: On 05/12/2007, Lee Corbin wrote: > Stathis writes > > > If anything, drug addiction occurs in our culture due to having too > > little control over one's mind. Some drug addicts wish they had never > > been tempted to use the drug in the first place, > > Hmm, but some are all right with it---or is it that they just > don't fantasize? Some have no regrets at all? They mostly wish that they could enjoy their drug without the associated problems: that the drug was cheaper and not illegal, that it didn't impair their work performance, that their family weren't so upset about their drug use, and so on. If that isn't possible, they wish that they could limit their drug use, and if that isn't possible either, they might wish they had never used the drug in the first place. It is quite rare to encounter someone who really doesn't care if their drug use destroys them. > > If you thought that the denial of all pleasures was > > important, you could simply make yourself content to deny yourself all > > pleasures. > > Yes. > > > This would involve making pleasure-denial more pleasant > > than the anticipation of pleasure indulgence. > > That sounds distinctly odd. When I deny myself the possibility of pigging > out on a large bag of junk food, I would not call my resultant state more > "pleasant". I just sigh and reconcile myself to having foregone a certain > pleasure. Also, experiencing fear of consequences, which keeps, say, > some men from immediately raping any nearby female, also does not > seem to qualify for "pleasant" in any way. We could consider a sort of hedonic point system, where pleasure yields positive points and pain negative points. At each juncture where a decision is required, the decision is made that maximises the expected number of points. Anticipation of the pleasure of rape is outweighed by anticipation of the pain of rape, so rape does not occur. A disinhibiting substance like alcohol reduces the relative weighting of the negative side of this equation, so rape occurs. -- Stathis Papaioannou From neptune at superlink.net Wed Dec 5 12:54:03 2007 From: neptune at superlink.net (Technotranscendence) Date: Wed, 5 Dec 2007 07:54:03 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Robert Bussard References: <200712050232.lB52WPj61257@unreasonable.com> Message-ID: <008401c8373d$ea824dc0$ad893cd1@pavilion> On Tuesday, December 04, 2007 9:32 PM David Lubkin extropy at unreasonable.com wrote: > Robert Bussard died October 6. > > > > > > > -- David. Yeah, sad. I found this out a few days ago because _Analog_ ran a piece in their latest issue on electrodynamic fusion -- something Bussard was working on at E/MCC before he died. Regards, Dan See the always/never imitated "Free Banking FAQ" at: http://uweb1.superlink.net/~neptune/BankFAQ.html From max at maxmore.com Wed Dec 5 18:12:30 2007 From: max at maxmore.com (Max More) Date: Wed, 05 Dec 2007 12:12:30 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Article: Realizing the Promise of Personalized Medicine Message-ID: <20071205181155.DUIC2457.hrndva-omta01.mail.rr.com@MaxDesk.maxmore.com> I recently wrote this commentary on/review on a Harvard Business Review article that will be of interest to many on the list: Realizing the Promise of Personalized Medicine Mara G. Aspinall, Richard G. Hamermesh Thalidomide, a drug sold and prescribed during the late 1950s and early 1960s, became perhaps the most reviled medical drug ever. Primarily prescribed to pregnant women, between 1956 and 1962, around 1,000 children were born with severe malformities to mothers who had taken thalidomide during pregnancy. Despite its horrible reputation, subsequent research has indicated significant potential benefits of the drug as an anti-inflammatory that provides relief to leprosy sufferers, as a treatment for multiple myeloma, and perhaps for arachnoiditis, Crohn?s disease, and several cancers. About the only people who should not take Thalidomide, it appears, are pregnant women. The Thalidomide experience underscores the vital importance of carefully targeting treatments based on individuals? particular physiologies or?as this article considers?their particular genome. Not so very long ago in human history, for almost all medical conditions and all people, doctors would prescribe a course of blood-letting. Now, more than ever, doctors are able to customize therapy for individuals. Mara Aspinall, the president of Genzyme Genetics, and Richard Hamermesh, chair of a Harvard Business School initiative to improve leadership in health care organizations, argue that explain that adoption of personalized medicine has been painfully slow, being held back by the trial-and-error treatment model. That dominant model governs how the health care system develops, regulates, pays for, and delivers therapies. In this article, they detail the four main barriers to personalized medicine and suggest ways to overcome them. If we could accelerate the adoption of personalized medicine, we would save both lives and money in abundance. Several scientific advances seem to make the eventual triumph of personalized medicine inevitable. The inevitable could be far too slow in arriving since the transition from trial-and-error medicine to personalized medicine is being held back by four barriers: The pharmaceutical industry?s historically successful blockbuster model; a problematic regulatory environment; a dysfunctional payment system; and physician behavior that is firmly attached to trial-and-error medicine. The authors point to several signs that the industry?s blockbuster model is failing. They recommend that big pharmaceutical companies abandon the blockbuster business model in favor of one based on a larger portfolio of targeted?and therefore more effective and profitable?treatments; forge alliances with diagnostic companies; and step up efforts to communicate the safety and efficacy advantages of targeted therapies. They cite several reasons to believe that the targeted model would increase sales and profits in the intermediate and long terms. The current regulatory environment also needs overhauling. It overemphasizes large-scale clinical trials of broad-based therapies and neglects monitoring and assessment after approval is won. The authors recommend fast-tracking the review of all new drugs that include a diagnostic test as part of the patient-selection process and urge the FDA to craft appropriate standards to ensure the accuracy and integrity of diagnostic tests. To improve the economics of the payment system (which currently rewards physicians for activity rather than for early diagnosis and prevention), regulation and reimbursement must be coordinated to create the right incentives for the right outcomes. The authors make some specific suggestions for achieving this. Medical schools can help overcome the final barrier of physician behavior rooted in trial-and-error medicine, such as through education about genomics, diagnostic testing, and targeted therapies. Employers in the United States can do their part to hasten the triumph of personalized medicine by pushing insurers to cover targeted therapies, including diagnostics and insisting that providers routinely offer them to their employees; and by demanding that cost-conscious insurers focus on the overall expense of treatment during the entire course of a disease, not just the cost of the initial procedures. Max More, Ph.D. Strategic Philosopher www.maxmore.com max at maxmore.com From kevin at kevinfreels.com Wed Dec 5 22:26:25 2007 From: kevin at kevinfreels.com (Kevin Freels) Date: Wed, 05 Dec 2007 16:26:25 -0600 Subject: [ExI] fermi paradox- weighted summary In-Reply-To: <7d6322030712041859g67b83e1fl8492592d34753489@mail.gmail.com> References: <700872.95299.qm@web35605.mail.mud.yahoo.com> <7d6322030712041859g67b83e1fl8492592d34753489@mail.gmail.com> Message-ID: <47572591.3030804@kevinfreels.com> I suspect that the problem with the Fermi Paradox is simply a misunderstanding that will be solved in time and is not a true paradox. For example, Reno's Paradox that was left unsolved for roughly 1400 years was finally solved by Cantor. By comparison, Fermi's Paradox has been unsolved for only about 57 years. I am sure that in time the answer will reveal itself. I don't think John's point was that any of his ideas was to be a suitable solution, but instead a method of pointing out just how many other possibilities there are besides the so-called paradox. Any one of them may be right, or none of them. I think John's point was that it's not a true paradox. It's just an unanswered question with many possible answers that simply can't be tested yet. Absence of evidence is not the same as evidence of absence. The evidence we're looking for may just as well be right there in the crust of the moon or even the ice in our own poles for all we know of our own planet let alone the rest of the universe. Seien wrote: > > > On 04/12/2007, *John* > wrote: > > i apologize in advance for my non-blackberry internet cell phone > connection which does not format well here. why must we think that > intelligent alien races would either self -destruct from civil war > or if not that, give up expansionism to become virtual lotus > eaters? Lol The great powers out there may frown on > macro-engineering projects as being a scar on the natural beauty > of the universe and that is why we don't see it. Or they may have > technology so advanced that they simply do not need dyson sphere > sized solar collectors, etc.. Perhaps they have gone > post-singularity and have bored into other planes of existance so > young races like ours have room to develop. They may be cosmic > ecologists at heart. I believe intelligent alien life is out > there and may even be aware of us and have our location marked > down on their maps as being off limits for now. Humanity may be > voracious in its appetite to devour and reshape nature but that > may not be the > case out there. I suspect for ages to come sentients will find it > amusing that we dared to think humanity could be alone in such a > vast universe. John grigg > > > > > What is your reason for believing this? All I see is a typical vein of > anti-human insinuations running through an otherwise entirely > speculative assertion. > > > > > -- > ~Seien > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20071205/2f377a9a/attachment.html From pjmanney at gmail.com Thu Dec 6 04:34:17 2007 From: pjmanney at gmail.com (PJ Manney) Date: Wed, 5 Dec 2007 20:34:17 -0800 Subject: [ExI] TED - Phillipe Starck Message-ID: <29666bf30712052034g1cd372dfj1ce9669e6e30d6bd@mail.gmail.com> Phillipe Starck thinks deeply about design... and it turns out he's an H+er! It's a charming, inspirational lecture from one of our greatest living designers. http://www.ted.com/talks/view/id/197 PJ From spike66 at att.net Thu Dec 6 07:14:21 2007 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Wed, 5 Dec 2007 23:14:21 -0800 Subject: [ExI] xmas songs again In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <200712060741.lB67f2qn015484@andromeda.ziaspace.com> As I pointed out last year, if one were to list the songs to which one knows all the words, many if not most of that list would be christmas songs. We already know why: every country and pop singer cuts a christmas album, for these are a sure money maker. Then of course the merchants grind them into our brains against our will for at least two if not three solid months in a desperate attempt to break even and turn profit for the year by influencing us to buy quickly in order to escape the maddeningly repetitive melodies. Try not to think of the words of an random christmas song, right now. Try to forget all the words. OK impossible, never mind. With that admission, I was trying not to think of the words of the little drummer boy, finding it impossible to not imagine some waif rumpa pum pumming, when I ran across the lyric that explains "...the ox and lamb kept time..." Wouldn't that totally freak you out to see that? I would be totally like that shower scene in Psycho. How did they keep time? Did they tap their hoofs? Did they sway to the beat? I can imagine the mother snatching the babies and fleeing in stark terror into the silent night, wise guys running in all directions at once, tripping over the christmas ornaments in their hasty egress from the stable, the shrieking drummer boy hurling his instrument at the apparently demon-possessed beasts tapping their hoofs in rhythm before attempting a desperate escape. Hey its that time of year. You knew the silliness would start any time now, ja? Do let us be as happy as the circumstances allow. We all have much for which to be thankful, even those of us who have very recently experienced personal tragedy, such as our own Dr. Graps (for which we all feel deepest sympathy). We are alive, we are (I sincerely hope) healthy, we were born late enough in history to be doing what you are doing right now, and do ponder for just a moment the wonder of that activity. We are not at immediate risk of violence or life threatening disease, unlike nearly all our ancestors since humans diverged from chimps. Because of the analemma, after tomorrow the sunset will stop getting earlier and will start to swing later once more, so that we can begin to anticipate the coming glorious new life of spring and summer, full of new opportunities and fun times, recovery from this year's setbacks and progress towards the ever promising future. Onward! spike From mbb386 at main.nc.us Thu Dec 6 12:03:06 2007 From: mbb386 at main.nc.us (MB) Date: Thu, 6 Dec 2007 07:03:06 -0500 (EST) Subject: [ExI] xmas songs again In-Reply-To: <200712060741.lB67f2qn015484@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <200712060741.lB67f2qn015484@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <33754.72.236.102.94.1196942586.squirrel@www.main.nc.us> > Hey its that time of year. You knew the silliness would start any time now, > ja? Do let us be as happy as the circumstances allow. We all have much for > which to be thankful, even those of us who have very recently experienced > personal tragedy, such as our own Dr. Graps (for which we all feel deepest > sympathy). We are alive, we are (I sincerely hope) healthy, we were born > late enough in history to be doing what you are doing right now, and do > ponder for just a moment the wonder of that activity. We are not at > immediate risk of violence or life threatening disease, unlike nearly all > our ancestors since humans diverged from chimps. Because of the analemma, > after tomorrow the sunset will stop getting earlier and will start to swing > later once more, so that we can begin to anticipate the coming glorious new > life of spring and summer, full of new opportunities and fun times, recovery > from this year's setbacks and progress towards the ever promising future. > Onward! Thanks spike! :) And may this holiday season be gracious to you and yours as well. My home seems filled withthe smells of sweet baking and I find I'm humgry *all the time* because of it! :))) Putting on a little extra layer of fat against the cold of winter... Best regards to all. MB ps. Didn't you mark out in stone in your back garden the analemma - especially for Isaac to see when he's older? From neptune at superlink.net Thu Dec 6 12:34:49 2007 From: neptune at superlink.net (Technotranscendence) Date: Thu, 6 Dec 2007 07:34:49 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Newsweek: The Future of Reading References: <29666bf30711271149oe68467dp9b2a4b2d735fcfb5@mail.gmail.com> Message-ID: <00ba01c83804$65311800$0d893cd1@pavilion> On Tuesday, November 27, 2007 2:49 PM PJ Manney pjmanney at gmail.com wrote: > I'm sure you all know about Amazon's release of > the Kindle, but this article is a better than usual > puff piece that uses the Kindle to re-examine > e-publishing. I was actually involved with the device for about a year before it was released. :) Regards, Dan From pharos at gmail.com Thu Dec 6 13:32:53 2007 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Thu, 6 Dec 2007 13:32:53 +0000 Subject: [ExI] fermi paradox- weighted summary In-Reply-To: <47572591.3030804@kevinfreels.com> References: <700872.95299.qm@web35605.mail.mud.yahoo.com> <7d6322030712041859g67b83e1fl8492592d34753489@mail.gmail.com> <47572591.3030804@kevinfreels.com> Message-ID: On Dec 5, 2007 10:26 PM, Kevin Freels wrote: > I suspect that the problem with the Fermi Paradox is simply a > misunderstanding that will be solved in time and is not a true paradox. No paradox. That's just the way the Universe is. Seth Shostak has just written a piece about this subject. Aliens Apart By Seth Shostak Senior Astronomer, SETI posted: 06 December 2007 For years scientists have wrestled with a puzzling fact: The universe appears to be remarkably suited for life. Its physical properties are finely tuned to permit our existence. Stars, planets and the kind of sticky chemistry that produces fish, ferns and folks wouldn't be possible if some of the cosmic constants were only slightly different. Well, there's another property of the universe that's equally noteworthy: It's set up in a way that keeps everyone isolated. The distances between adjacent stars are measured in tens of trillions of miles. The distances between adjacent civilizations, even assuming that there are lots of them out there, are measured in thousands of trillions of miles ? hundreds of light-years, to use a more tractable unit. Note that this number doesn't change much no matter how many planets you believe are studded with sentients ? the separation distance is pretty much the same whether you think there are ten thousand galactic societies or a million. So, the time scales for travel and communication are too long for easy interaction with beings whose lifetimes are, like us, only a century or less. So while the cosmos could easily be rife with intelligent life ? the architecture of the universe, and not some Starfleet Prime Directive, has ensured precious little interference of one culture with another. ----------------------- BillK From eugen at leitl.org Thu Dec 6 13:45:16 2007 From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl) Date: Thu, 6 Dec 2007 14:45:16 +0100 Subject: [ExI] fermi paradox- weighted summary In-Reply-To: References: <700872.95299.qm@web35605.mail.mud.yahoo.com> <7d6322030712041859g67b83e1fl8492592d34753489@mail.gmail.com> <47572591.3030804@kevinfreels.com> Message-ID: <20071206134516.GA10128@leitl.org> On Thu, Dec 06, 2007 at 01:32:53PM +0000, BillK wrote: > No paradox. That's just the way the Universe is. That's the way Shostak thinks it is. > The distances between adjacent stars are measured in tens of trillions At 0.9 c, the distances are very, very short. > of miles. The distances between adjacent civilizations, even assuming > that there are lots of them out there, are measured in thousands of > trillions of miles ? hundreds of light-years, to use a more tractable Any culture slightly beyond us is expanding in a sphere at almost c. Such a thing is both impossible to miss, and almost impossible to observe. > So, the time scales for travel and communication are too long for easy > interaction with beings whose lifetimes are, like us, only a century A circular void millions to billions of lightyears is impossible to miss, but almost impossible to observe. You'd have to be it, or you'd have to be just on cusp of being it, while being hit by it. That's not so very likely. > or less. So while the cosmos could easily be rife with intelligent > life ? the architecture of the universe, and not some Starfleet Prime > Directive, has ensured precious little interference of one culture > with another. That view was quaint even for 1960s. -- Eugen* Leitl leitl http://leitl.org ______________________________________________________________ ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE From pharos at gmail.com Thu Dec 6 14:36:15 2007 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Thu, 6 Dec 2007 14:36:15 +0000 Subject: [ExI] fermi paradox- weighted summary In-Reply-To: <20071206134516.GA10128@leitl.org> References: <700872.95299.qm@web35605.mail.mud.yahoo.com> <7d6322030712041859g67b83e1fl8492592d34753489@mail.gmail.com> <47572591.3030804@kevinfreels.com> <20071206134516.GA10128@leitl.org> Message-ID: On Dec 6, 2007 1:45 PM, Eugen Leitl wrote: > > At 0.9 c, the distances are very, very short. > If you allow unknown technology, anything is possible. (Or, at least no presently available technology, or speculative technologies that may never become feasible). Seth (and you) know that 0.9c travel requires huge energy use and tremendous radiation shielding. (And you need wild speculation to permit this). He even provides a link to such speculations for you. > > Any culture slightly beyond us is expanding in a sphere at almost c. > Such a thing is both impossible to miss, and almost impossible to observe. > If you assume insane advanced cultures will do this. I don't. > > A circular void millions to billions of lightyears is impossible to miss, > but almost impossible to observe. You'd have to be it, or you'd have to > be just on cusp of being it, while being hit by it. That's not so very > likely. > Yea, I guess the Universe could be being eaten by something that we can't detect. I'll start digging my shelter tomorrow. BillK From eugen at leitl.org Thu Dec 6 14:57:16 2007 From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl) Date: Thu, 6 Dec 2007 15:57:16 +0100 Subject: [ExI] fermi paradox- weighted summary In-Reply-To: References: <700872.95299.qm@web35605.mail.mud.yahoo.com> <7d6322030712041859g67b83e1fl8492592d34753489@mail.gmail.com> <47572591.3030804@kevinfreels.com> <20071206134516.GA10128@leitl.org> Message-ID: <20071206145716.GB10128@leitl.org> On Thu, Dec 06, 2007 at 02:36:15PM +0000, BillK wrote: > If you allow unknown technology, anything is possible. Self-replicating technology, phased array radiators with lightminute aperture and gray sail probes are not exactly off-the wall. > (Or, at least no presently available technology, or speculative Why would any culture be limited to presently available technology? > technologies that may never become feasible). Any self-rep systems will become visible over astronomical distances, given a mere few megayears. > Seth (and you) know that 0.9c travel requires huge energy use and Huge? Energy density less than a fusion weapon. And of course you leave the drive at home. > tremendous radiation shielding. (And you need wild speculation to Why would you need radiation shielding at mere 0.9 c? Why would you not rather self-heal all the time? > permit this). He even provides a link to such speculations for you. > I don't think I need links for speculations, thanks. > If you assume insane advanced cultures will do this. If you think darwinian systems are insane, welcome to the loony bin. > I don't. You should write a paper on what you think. I'm less interested in opinions. > Yea, I guess the Universe could be being eaten by something that we > can't detect. You can -- look in the mirror. But anybody else can't see us, because of anthropic effect. > I'll start digging my shelter tomorrow. Shelters only buy you very little time. -- Eugen* Leitl leitl http://leitl.org ______________________________________________________________ ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE From pharos at gmail.com Thu Dec 6 16:24:32 2007 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Thu, 6 Dec 2007 16:24:32 +0000 Subject: [ExI] fermi paradox- weighted summary In-Reply-To: <20071206145716.GB10128@leitl.org> References: <700872.95299.qm@web35605.mail.mud.yahoo.com> <7d6322030712041859g67b83e1fl8492592d34753489@mail.gmail.com> <47572591.3030804@kevinfreels.com> <20071206134516.GA10128@leitl.org> <20071206145716.GB10128@leitl.org> Message-ID: On Dec 6, 2007 2:57 PM, Eugen Leitl wrote: > On Thu, Dec 06, 2007 at 02:36:15PM +0000, BillK wrote: > > Self-replicating technology, phased array radiators with lightminute > aperture and gray sail probes are not exactly off-the wall. > > Why would any culture be limited to presently available technology? > But these technologies only exist in speculation. They *may* be possible in the future, if society decides to spend resources in those directions and no insurmountable problems (technical or sociological) occur. If you are relying on unknown technology, then you can speculate all you like, but that doesn't make it a likely possibility. > > Any self-rep systems will become visible over astronomical > distances, given a mere few megayears. Well we can't see them, so we might as well assume they probably don't exist. > > Huge? Energy density less than a fusion weapon. And of course > you leave the drive at home. > You need the equivalent to stop at the other end. And you are assuming that a civilization will want to build these useless devices in the first place. (Useless, because at vast expense the civilisation gets no benefit). > Why would you need radiation shielding at mere 0.9 c? Why would > you not rather self-heal all the time? > Self-heal? Against continual near-lightspeed cosmic radiation and dust? I think not. I thought you were all in favour of robot space exploration anyway, because of these and other problems. > > If you think darwinian systems are insane, welcome to the loony bin. > You well know that humans have finished with darwinian evolution already and we're not particularly advanced yet. Our first world peoples have already stopped breeding and are dying out and extending the life span of remaining members. They may, for a short period, be replaced by faster breeding nations, but they in turn will follow the same path. Advanced intelligence (or advanced civilisation) means very low reproductive rates. (Sure, it's only evidence of one intelligent species as an example, but that's one more than you have as evidence for the alternative). There are speculations about grey goo eating everything, nano-robots expanding at lightspeed eating the universe, etc. But we don't see any of that, so why give much credence to such ideas? It's far more likely that advanced civilisations don't breed much, don't expand, and keep themselves to themselves. For many reasons, including Seth's latest article. BillK From citta437 at aol.com Thu Dec 6 19:52:13 2007 From: citta437 at aol.com (citta437 at aol.com) Date: Thu, 06 Dec 2007 14:52:13 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Is Evolution Random? Message-ID: <8CA0658A1439285-CBC-51D7@webmail-md16.sysops.aol.com> Random Relative to What? To understand the randomness claimed for evolution by scientists, as opposed to that feared by theologians and moral philosophers, it's important to ask "random relative to what?" In any model of a process as described by a scientific theory, there are many things taken for granted. Philosophers of science refer to these as ancillary assumptions or hypotheses. Some of these are assumed from ignorance: science might not yet have any workable and tested theory or model to deal with that class of phenomena. Others are assumed because they are well worked out in another scientific theory or discipline. For example, Darwin knew that there was heredity, but he did not have a good theory of heredity to work by. His selection theory (the version he and Wallace published) had to assume that traits were heritable. He did propose a theory of heredity (pangenesis) based on a now discredited view of the influence of the use of traits on reproduction, but it was never essential to the theory of natural selection. So far as his theory of evolution by selection was concerned, heredity was an area to be filled out later. Once Mendel's principles of heredity were rediscovered, permitting mathematical models of genetic change at the level of populations to be formulated by Haldane, Fisher and Wright and others in the 1930s and 1940s, the so-called Neo-Darwinian ("synthetic") theory of natural selection used these results as ancillary hypotheses. Added to this Weissman's germ plasm theory that the sex cells (the "germ plasm") were not "reverse programmed' by the phenotypic organism (the "soma"), and natural selection of genetic content became a one-way causal process. Genes cause the ecologically active phenotype, but the phenotype does not program the information content of the genes. Hence, relative to natural selection, genetic content changes are "random". Let's call this the Black Box Conception of Randomness [See Bowler 1983 on the history of post-Darwinian theory and Dawkins 1996 for a fuller development of this.] Another way to say this is just that the changes that get encoded in genes occur with no forethought to the eventual needs of the orga