[ExI] Rationality and Irrationality

[Mike Dougherty]

On Dec 18, 2007 10:09 AM, Kevin Freels <kevin at kevinfreels.com> wrote:
> little doubt the US will tap Alaskan oil fields, but not before the
> selling price is five times what it is now. In order to make that
> happen, some changes are obviously required. Americans will not pay
> that much to drive,
>  Prove it. I think you are wrong. Americans have a love affair with the
> independence that driving a car brings. They cannot all afford to go out and
> buy a new vehicle. The average commute is 45 minutes meaning that they can't
[snip]
> were comfortable, attractive, safe (both real and perceived), that would do
> 75 mpg - or even 100, they would jump on it. But even then you have the used
> car problem to address. Any real alternative to make a difference will have
> to include all the used vehicles already out there.
>
>  Also, this still doesn't address the problem. The oil in Alaska, if not
> purchased by the US will be bought from us by other countries. It will be
> sold to whomever is willing to pay the most.

exactly.  We love to drive, and we'll pressure politicians to keep gas
prices under $100 a tank - but if the price raises enough to hurt,
people will be motivated to think in the "right" direction (towards
alternatives)  Suppose it takes 15 years for the lowest income car
owners to buy used hybrids manufactured this year.  By that point, the
US can sell their oil reserves at grossly inflated prices to less
developed nations because the "average" US car driver is less
dependent on it, while those countries lagging in the conversion have
no choice but to pay...

>
>  it wouldn't be worth it to go to work - so an
> artificial 50% increase now is just enough pain to adopt hybrid and
> electric vehicles so we can tolerate another 300+% increase tomorrow.
>
>  More money needs to be spent on R&D to make these products available. I
> like where you are going with this though. How about a $1.50 per gallon gas
> guzzler tax on all passenger vehicles that get less than 30 mpg and use that
> money to directly fund alternative R&D.

Yeah, because people like to voluntarily accept unequal taxes :)