[extropy-chat] Cold Fusion Survey

[Robin Hanson]

I find it fascinating that there has been such a long dispute here on 
cold fusion (CF) without an attempt to clarify that anyone actually 
disagrees about anything.   Please, disputants and interested 
observers, offer (publicly or privately) estimates or bounds for 
these four probabilities:

1A. The probability that CF excess heat is a real phenomena, as 
opposed to misleading experimental technique.
2A.  The probability that CF excess heat is a real phenomena, and 
indicates fundamental new physics, as opposed to a new chemistry 
detail, such as a unexpected molecular structure.
1B.  The threshold probability for 1A that would justify further 
research into CF.
2B.  The threshold probability for 2A that would justify further 
research into CF.

Until you know your estimates or bounds for such numbers conflict, 
you don't know you disagree.  The A disagreements are about facts, 
while the B disagreements are more about values.


Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  <http://hanson.gmu.edu>http://hanson.gmu.edu
Research Associate, Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323