[extropy-chat] Cold Fusion Survey

[Robin Hanson]

At 05:58 AM 2/12/2007, Eugen* Leitl wrote:
> > offer (publicly or privately) estimates or bounds for
> > these four probabilities:
> > 1A. The probability that CF excess heat is a real phenomena, as
> > opposed to misleading experimental technique.
>
>The point is that the experiments are so bad we can't tell.
>
> > 2A.  The probability that CF excess heat is a real phenomena, and
> > indicates fundamental new physics, as opposed to a new chemistry
> > detail, such as a unexpected molecular structure.
>
>We don't know whether there's excess heat. ...

I guess you don't believe in the concept of probabilities as a way to
express uncertainty?    Are there any odds at which you would bet?


Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  <http://hanson.gmu.edu>http://hanson.gmu.edu
Research Associate, Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
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