[extropy-chat] Cold Fusion Survey

[Chris Hibbert]

I'm neither a chemist or a physicist, and haven't participated in the CF 
discussion.  But I read widely in science, and occasionally support 
out-of-the-mainstream theories.  ( Gold's "Deep, Hot Biosphere", de 
Grey's SENS proposal, Cryonics, Nanotech long before SciAm caved in, but 
not psi.)

> 1A. The probability that CF excess heat is a real phenomena, as 
> opposed to misleading experimental technique.

not more than 5%. maybe less.

> 2A.  The probability that CF excess heat is a real phenomena, and 
> indicates fundamental new physics, as opposed to a new chemistry 
> detail, such as a unexpected molecular structure.

The chance of new fundamental physics at the level of QED or String 
Theory is negligible.  If I understand the distinction, HT 
superconductors are "unexpected molecular structure".  I don't think 
there's a noticeable chance that CF rises above that.

> 1B.  The threshold probability for 1A that would justify further 
> research into CF.

After 15 years, 5% may not be good enough.  People who understand the 
physics and chemistry better would have to do a more thorough 
evaluation.  This may be at the level I described when talking about 
Technology Review's SENS challenge.
http://pancrit.blogspot.com/2006/07/sens-debate-continued.html
A small panel of serious,  respected researchers appointed to take a 
serious look at the evidence.  Their role would be to actually look at 
the evidence.  I don't fault Dennet for being willing to debate without 
looking at individual reports, but there comes a time when someone 
should actually do so.

> 2B.  The threshold probability for 2A that would justify further 
> research into CF.

Somewhere above negligible.  (i.e. this doesn't provide the necessary 
justification for continued funding.)

Chris
-- 
C. J. Cherryh, "Invader", on why we visit very old buildings:
       "A sense of age, of profound truths.  Respect for something
       hands made, that's stood through storms and wars and time.
       It persuades us that things we do may last and matter."

Chris Hibbert
hibbert at mydruthers.com
Blog:   http://pancrit.org