[extropy-chat] Cold Fusion Survey
Robin Hanson
rhanson at gmu.edu
Tue Feb 13 16:38:03 UTC 2007
On 2/12/2007, I asked:
>Please, disputants and interested observers, offer (publicly or
>privately) estimates or bounds for these four probabilities:
>1A. The probability that CF excess heat is a real phenomena, as
>opposed to misleading experimental technique.
>2A. The probability that CF excess heat is a real phenomena, and
>indicates fundamental new physics, as opposed to a new chemistry
>detail, such as a unexpected molecular structure.
>1B. The threshold probability for 1A that would justify further
>research into CF.
>2B. The threshold probability for 2A that would justify further
>research into CF.
For those wanting a scorecard, here is a summary, including my estimate
John Clark Chris Hibbert Ben Goertzel Eugen
Leitl R. Hanson
1A 5E-11 <5% [.7 , .9] so bad we
can't tell 15%
2A 5E-11 negligible >.9 * [.7 , .9] we don't know 2%
1B 1E-(1E10) 5% .01 no
answer 10%
2B 1E-(1E10) >negligible 0 no
answer 1%
The range of estimates is disturbingly wide.
Robin Hanson rhanson at gmu.edu <http://hanson.gmu.edu>http://hanson.gmu.edu
Research Associate, Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
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