[extropy-chat] what is probability?

[Jef Allbright]

gts wrote:

> On Sat, 06 Jan 2007 21:03:50 -0500, Jef Allbright 
> <jef at jefallbright.net>
> wrote:
> 
>> I assume a "real" universe describable (in principle,
>> at any particular moment) in coherent and consistent
>> terms from any particular frame of reference.
> 
> Concerning this universe you assume...
> 
> Do you assume it exists objectively, separate from your 
> awareness and knowledge? 

No, if I were to make that assumption, then I would unjustifiably limit
my model.  Also, I have logical reason to know that I can't make that
assumption.  Why rule out the possibility that this "physical reality"
is actually something like a simulation within a larger "reality", or
perhaps just the result of the behavior of "information" with no
physical basis, or ...?  We can never know, so why not get comfortable
with uncertainty to the extent that it applies?

Making the assumption of an objective universe is unwarranted, and it
unnecessarily complicates our model of understanding and
decision-making.


> If yes then do you assume also that 
> what you call "actual likelihoods" exist objectively, 
> separate from your "subjective assessments" of them?
> 
> If yes to both questions then I think objectivists have no 
> disagreement with you, and that in fact you should count 
> yourself among them.

I think it's funny that I can argue long and hard that all meaning is
subjective and in the end, without showing understanding of my point of
view, you can still find a way to suggest that I should adopt the label
of objectivist.

Unfortunately in my estimation, I guess the odds are that the chance for
agreement on this issue is probably not very likely.

- Jef