[extropy-chat] what is probability?

[BillK]

On 1/14/07, Damien Broderick wrote:
> At 10:36 PM 1/14/2007 +0000, BillK wrote:
> >
> >Third World birth rate increasing.
>
> The usual "demographic transition" expectation is: not for long.
> Assuming that health benefits etc spread. Do you have reason to question this?
>


Everything changes. Even the changes themselves.  :)

The first world birth rate declined as the death rate also declined.
It is expected that the third world will follow the same path.
But current estimates do not predict the third world birth rate
becoming similar to the first world until around 2080.

By then the future will have arrived.

<http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf>

(There is also the problem of emigration from the third world and the
high birth rate
of non-western families already within the first world).


BillK