[ExI] Next moment, everything around you will probably change

Stathis Papaioannou stathisp at gmail.com
Fri Jun 15 11:41:30 UTC 2007

On 15/06/07, TheMan <mabranu at yahoo.com> wrote:

In that case, it still doesn't mean that it is
> rational to assume that we will continue having the
> same environment in the next moment, and the next,
> etc. It still doesn't justify the belief that we will
> still live on the same planet tomorrow. Just because
> we have had an incredibly unchanging environment so
> far, doesn't mean that we will in the coming moments.
> The normal thing should be to be through around from
> place to place in universe at every new moment,
> shouln't it?

You have discovered what has been called the "failure of induction" problem
with ensemble (or multiverse) theories. One solution is to consider this as
evidence against ensemble theories. The other solution is to show that the
measure of universes similar to the ones we experience from moment to moment
is greater than the measure of anomalous universes (we use "measure" when
discussing probabilities in relation to subsets of infinite sets). For
example, it seems reasonable to assume that if some other version of me in
the multiverse is sufficiently similar to me to count as my subjective
successor, then most likely that version of me arrived at his position as a
result of a local physical universe very similar to my own which continues
evolving in the time-honoured manner. The version of me that is the same
except living in a world where dogs have three legs would far more likely
have been born in a world where dogs always had three legs, and thus would
*not* count as a successor who remembers that dogs used to have four legs.
The version of me who lives in a world where canine anatomy is apparently
miraculously transformed is of much lower measure so much less likely to be
experienced as my successor.

Further references:



Stathis Papaioannou
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