[extropy-chat] War Is Easy To Explain - Peace is Not
gts_2000 at yahoo.com
Tue Mar 13 18:28:04 UTC 2007
On Tue, 13 Mar 2007 12:27:59 -0400, Thomas <Thomas at thomasoliver.net> wrote:
> So, are you implying that peace and population are positive correlates?
I don't know if that is Lee's implication, but certainly it is mine.
However as you probably know correlation does not imply causation.
The question I think Lee really wants to us to consider relates closely to
the interesting question of whether humanity's propensity to wage war has
changed over the course of recorded history. I don't know if humans have
become more or less war-like, but it seems to me that a steady decrease in
global war-per-capita is not convincing evidence one way or the other.
The rate of growth of the human population is a major factor in
considerations about changes of global war-per-capita, but it's one that
seems to me to have relatively little bearing on the question of
humanity's propensity to wage war. Humans are prone to have sex and make
babies, no matter their opinions of war.
Also the almost certainly slower rate of growth in the number of
war-capable nation-states on earth (vs the rate of growth of population)
is I think largely a function of physical constraints.
Given that population growth rates and nation-state growth rates are two
enormously important factors in calculating rates of change in global
war-per-capita, it seems to me that the supposed steady decrease global
war-per-capita is not attributable, necessarily, to peaceful changes in
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