[extropy-chat] War Is Easy To Explain - Peace is Not

gts gts_2000 at yahoo.com
Tue Mar 13 18:28:04 UTC 2007

On Tue, 13 Mar 2007 12:27:59 -0400, Thomas <Thomas at thomasoliver.net> wrote:

> So, are you implying that peace and population are positive correlates?

I don't know if that is Lee's implication, but certainly it is mine.  
However as you probably know correlation does not imply causation.

The question I think Lee really wants to us to consider relates closely to  
the interesting question of whether humanity's propensity to wage war has  
changed over the course of recorded history. I don't know if humans have  
become more or less war-like, but it seems to me that a steady decrease in  
global war-per-capita is not convincing evidence one way or the other.

The rate of growth of the human population is a major factor in  
considerations about changes of global war-per-capita, but it's one that  
seems to me to have relatively little bearing on the question of  
humanity's propensity to wage war. Humans are prone to have sex and make  
babies, no matter their opinions of war.

Also the almost certainly slower rate of growth in the number of  
war-capable nation-states on earth (vs the rate of growth of population)  
is I think largely a function of physical constraints.

Given that population growth rates and nation-state growth rates are two  
enormously important factors in calculating rates of change in global  
war-per-capita, it seems to me that the supposed steady decrease global  
war-per-capita is not attributable, necessarily, to peaceful changes in  
human nature.


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