[ExI] how would Transhumanists cope if the Singularity did not happen in their lifetime?

[Eugen Leitl]

On Tue, May 15, 2007 at 04:41:55PM +0100, Russell Wallace wrote:

>    Okay, look at the SPEC benchmarks, which use real-world code.

SPEC is largely useless for AI (and there's no Singularity by 2030 without
AI, to come back to the start of the thread).

http://www.ce.chalmers.se/research/group/hpcag/publ/2004/EWN04/performancegrowth_tr-2004-9.pdf
(way too optimistic, because not memory-bottlenecked).

http://www.spiral.net/problem.html
http://www.cs.virginia.edu/stream/
etc.
 
>    What do you think actual performance does, remains constant? increases

It depends on your application, of course. 

http://www.cs.virginia.edu/~mccalpin/wwc-keynote.html

A little bird told me that AI doesn't fit into predictable memory 
access, and is memory-bottlenecked, given today's architectures. 

>    arithmetically?

http://www.streambench.org/db1/00050/streambench.org/_uimages/streambench_logo.gif

Take the blue pill, not the red one.

To not be a party-pooper. I'll grant you that aggregated TOP 500 is quite 
impressive, but it's not a direct function of Moore. I'll also grant you that 
the integration density (which is all Moore is about) represents a potential 
performance, currently locked in a suboptimal configuration.

When we make predictions, we need to make sure they're not based on
cherry-picked best case. Orelse our future model is faulty, and it
will come and bite us in the butt. Hard.

-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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