[ExI] It's simply obvious, right?

[Jef Allbright]

This TED video illustrates a difficulty at the core of much futurist discussion.

The subject is not new, but it might as well be, for the resounding
lack of progress acquiring an intuitive grasp of reasoning about
uncertainty.

Many will watch this video  -- it's from TED and therefore expected to
be high quality.

But how many will make the effort to integrate its very simple,
profound principle into your daily thinking?  It's very simple, but
not necessarily easy.

How many of you will shake your head, "rationalize" that it's just a
little too abstract, and go on arguing with passion and great
certainty despite an obvious disqualification?

Yes, I'm being quite tactless.  This is important, people!

<http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/67>

- Jef