[ExI] The Avalanche Threat

[Lee Corbin]

Stathis writes

> On 15/09/2007, Lee Corbin <lcorbin at rawbw.com> wrote:
>> ... 
>> The key factor is that another human being is a resourceful antagonist,
>> unlike avalanches and car accidents. Any sign of instability or hostility
>> from another human (or group of humans) has to be recognized as
>> a very serious danger.  And this hasn't changed at all in the last
>> 100,000 years.
> 
> Yes, but you still have to *rationally* assess the risk from your
> co-worker versus other risks. If he has been doing his rubber band
> trick for the last 30 years, with no other evidence of hostile or
> dangerous behaviour, this is different to the case where the behaviour
> is new and perhaps indicative of a developing psychotic episode.

Yes, I think that's right. Likewise if we knew with very high probability
that Iran was going to be no more of a threat than it has been the last
fifty years, then it would be quite irrational to worry much about it.

On the other hand, if your neighbor or coworker has repeated sworn
that he will kill you, and that the only thing that's been stopping him
heretofore has been lack of opportunity or technology, and his 
circumstances are now changing, we're right back to having to
regard this as very, very dangerous.

Lee