[ExI] Vinge finally cracks the NYT

[Emlyn]

2008/8/28 Daniel Grisinger <daniel at netgods.net>:
> Emlyn wrote:
>
>> I can't really explain this, but I've been getting a sense of ...
>> momentum in the online environment recently. It feels different to
>> what we've seen before, like isolated strands are starting to lock
>> together, feedback loops kicking off. Like the point in a film where
>> the urgent, tension building music begins, very quietly, so you'd
>> barely sense it. I really don't have anything much very concrete to
>> add, except that the free culture movement seems important to it.
>
> You aren't the only one.  I know many of my friends irl have commented on it
> recently.  And I think you're right that the overall free culture movement
> is the biggest piece of that, but I think that it's specifically the rise of
> maker culture that is doing it.  I think reprap is probably going to be
> retroactively recognized as being as important as Gutenberg.
>
> Cheers!
>
> daniel
>
> ps- I think this is the first time I've ever posted to exi-chat, but I've
> been reading for years.  Hi, all!  I can't even begin to explain how much
> I've learned from all of you, how much I appreciate that, or how amazing I
> still find it that things such as transhumanist mailing lists actually
> exist.  I have to pinch myself sometimes to remind myself that, similarity
> to the political and social tools Card introduced me to when Peter and
> Valentine blogged their way to global dictatorship be damned, I'm actually
> *not* suddenly living in a science fiction novel.  :-)

Cool, thanks for posting. Awesome reply too, I've just been talking
about reprap and 3d "prototyping" with work colleagues.

Now I think you're right about reprap, but you've got to separate out
easily conflated themes:
1 - Self replication
2 - 3d printing / rapid prototyping

I think that self replication is hugely important, going forward, but
that's not what's really interesting in the short term to me (well
it's really interesting, but a separate topic). Reprap does both
things, and is interesting separately

What's fascinating to me is 3d printing, and what kind of technology
it looks like. When you look at reprap, you're looking at something
that is reminiscent of home computing possibly in the early 70s? If
you show it to non-geeks, they wont be impressed I think.

3d printing itself, though, I would expect to see hitting homes, in a
bigger way, soon.

Consider this, for example:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAt2xD1L8dw&feature=related

Why isn't this stuff landing in consumer land already? It looks pretty
user friendly, just needs to be cheaper really, but even then by only
one order of magnitude.

I wonder if the answer to comes in two parts?
1 - It already is: there are home enthusiasts out there doing this
stuff already, just not on the radar, see:
  Fab at Home: http://fabathome.org/wiki/index.php?title=Fab%40Home:Choose_Your_Fabber
  "Home 3D Printing: The Movement Starts":
http://www.virtualworldlets.net/Resources/Hosted/Resource.php?Name=Home3DPrinting
2 - People are yet to really find uses

That second point is interesting. In discussions I have, people say
"but what would you make?" Reminds me of early attitudes to PCs; why
would you want one? For 3d fabbing, really, it's probably not going to
save you money over mass manufactured goods, it's currently going to
be slow and limited. Well that's how it would look to your average Joe
who is thinking about it from the point of view of a person used to
consuming mass manufactured widgets. Whereas, if creativity is a goal
in itself for you, if customisation is a goal, if you understand that
early stage technologies need you to ask "what can I do with this",
rather than "how do I replace previous paradigm X exactly down to the
last wart and hairball", then it's immediately obvious.

Let's add in a bit of a riff here on where this could go...

Well, it is clear that in the technology world outside the pure
infosphere, we have some current blockades that want fixing. One big
one is power. Power for small devices, power consumption en-masse,
power use and the damage it does to our planet (because of the methods
of the source).

There is a good chance, it seems to me, that sooner rather than later
we'll start to see solar based home energy systems which produce a lot
more power than they do now, for a lot less money. And that this will
move from "a lot more" up to "everything a home could use". [citation
needed]

If that happens, you can immediately see the demand, especially
amongst environmentally concerned people. And I think once you have
converted over, you are ripe to have a change in attitude about power,
because suddenly each unit of power you use does not equal a unit of
environmental damage. That concept takes a moment to absorb (well it
did for me), but if your power is all solar, there is suddenly no
direct cost and no externality.

I guess this could happen through centralised approaches too; as the
power feeding into the grid becomes largely, then mostly, then all
sustainable, energy use stops being a moral negative, it becomes
morally neutral.

So posit this shift in attitudes, and now look at a widget with "Made
in China" stamped on it. What does it imply? It possibly implies
"Non-sustainable energy cost", "Non-sustainable material use",
"Environmental degradation", "Possibly a product of Slave Labour".

This probably doesn't make western mass manufactured goods very much
more appealing, because hey, they'll still cost waaaay too much. But
put our 3d printer back in the mix.

Now, our 3d printer can make widgets. Assuming it does an ok job, it
has the benefit that you can get designs online from the iWidget
store, or FreeWidget.org, or bittorrent of course. You can modify it
if you like (I'd like my new doorknob in pink). And it's cheapish to
produce because you didn't pay for shipping, or energy costs, or the
overheads of vertically integrated mega corps, just a feedstock
cartridge and possibly the design if you are feeling like an
especially good little consumer. And, this is big, and you know that
no slave labour was involved, and no brown coal was burned. Your new
widget isn't a symbol for Damage.

You might still worry about where the feedstock comes from, but I
expect this is something tractable over time. 3d printing technologies
seem to be less wasteful of material than other manufacturing
techniques, so comparatively it probably looks good.

---

Back toward the original message I'm replying to: I'm thinking
hyper-exponential knowledge and social connectedness online, nurtured
by the free culture movement and commercial interests in more or less
equal parts, as the accelerant. Throw in 3d printing and possibly self
rep. Add sustainable energy use from greener power sources, at least
in the domestic sphere. And toss in consumer robotics, and a hydrogen
economy. Great Scott! (Biotech should be in here too I think, but my
impression at the moment is that it's being pwned by our broken IP
rules).

We are coming to a period where ever growing swathes of the "economy"
will begin to delaminate, into a non-monetary system. The free culture
movement is really about the early stages of exactly this. When I can
get a lot of what I want without money, or with neglible platform
costs (such as internet connection or buying a 3d printer), including
information, communication & social interaction, energy, and
manufactured objects, then I need less money. I (my culture) can
choose to do that, or I (my culture) can choose to refocus all
attention onto the things that are still scarce.

The latter is the default option I think, but will lead to things
breaking in a tangible way, it's a failure mode, because all the
really useful stuff is going to be the free stuff, so we'll either
ignore the important things, and/or try to fence off the unfenceable,
and focus on all the wrong things, fiddling furiously as Rome burns.

The former boils down to us recognising that the sphere of scarcity is
limited. While it will always be there, the set of all things scarce
is shrinking in a relative sense at least and should be encouraged to
continue shrinking. This is imho a prerequisite for us to proceed into
the longer future without destroying ourselves, or maybe more
positively I could say it is the path of maximum value, maximum net
benefit to all.

</rant>

-- 
Emlyn

http://emlynoregan.com - my home
http://point7.wordpress.com - downshifting and ranting
http://speakingoffreedom.blogspot.com - video link feed of great talks
on eCulture
http://actualizer.wordpress.com - for doing stuff