[ExI] the formerly rich and their larvae...

Stathis Papaioannou stathisp at gmail.com
Tue Feb 12 12:21:19 UTC 2008

On 12/02/2008, Bryan Bishop <kanzure at gmail.com> wrote:

> I wonder what was the main difference
> in financial prediction here that has landed me in my situation, which
> isn't too bad, but also not the best given the level of foresight that
> my parents were attempting. I think they hired a financial planner
> instead of doing it themselves. Again, what went wrong? Is this common?

"Financial prediction"? I'm guessing you don't mean something like,
"how much do I need to invest at n% for t years to have x total at the
end", but rather "what will the share market, interest rates,
inflation, government policy relating to taxation and education, etc.
etc. do over the next 18 years?". I wouldn't be so hard on your
parents or their financial planner for not being able to figure it

Relating to a parallel thread about salaries and managers versus
doers, does anyone else think it is unfair that "financial analysts"
are paid megabucks to make decisions about investment in equity,
currency, and commodity markets when on average the strategy of making
random choices would do just as well? In fact, some studies show that
funds which simply buy shares on the basis of their index weighting on
average do better than the funds with the analysts, perhaps because
they waste less money paying them.

Stathis Papaioannou

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